Monsoon update: Expect active phase from July 8
New Delhi, July 05: After a break, the Southwest Monsoon is again set to enter an active phase, M Rajeevan, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences said on Sunday, noting that forecast models show signs of increasing rain activity from July 8.
He said that models indicate the formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal.
"Monsoon Update: @moesgoi models show signs of revival- increasing rains in South, west coast & East Central India from 8 Jul.
"Models also make an early indication of formation of a weather system over BoB by12th & subsequent active monsoon phase," Rajeevan, who has been researching the Southwest Monsoon for more than three decades, tweeted.
After a good spell of rains in the first two and half weeks of June, the Southwest Monsoon has not advanced further since June 19.
Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, west Rajasthan are yet to see the arrival of the monsoon.
In its forecast for the July, India Meteorological Department said the country as a whole will witness good rainfall this month.
However, parts of north India, some parts of the south peninsula, central, east, and northeast India could witness rainfall in the category of normal to below normal.
It added that the conditions are not favourable for the monsoon's progress till July 7 due to the lack of a weather system.
The northern limit of the southwest monsoon (NLM) is currently passing through Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala, and Amritsar, the IMD said.
"Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, and Punjab during next 4-5 days," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Hence, subdued rainfall activity is very likely to continue to prevail over the northwest, central, and western parts of peninsular India during the next 4-5 days, it added.