Monsoon arrives in first week of June, South India to have normal rainfall
After beating the summer, there is a good chance that South India will witness a normal monsoon. Monsoon will arrive on time in the first week of June and will gradually spread across the rest of the country. The monsoon will make its fall in Kerala.
There are high chances that South India will witness a normal monsoon or even have excessive rainfall till September. Senior meteorologist Kanti Prasad while speaking at a seminar organised by the Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) Pvt Ltd. he said that hile there could be rain deficit in October post monsoon, November could see ample rainfall again.
There is a distinct possibility of a monsoon deficit with moderately negative side of normal due to El Nino he said while going by the forecast projected by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). He also said that at the same time the Indian Ocean Diode, warming of the Indian Ocean surface temperature is also showing an upward trend which could effectively nullify the El Nino factor as it had happened recently in 1997 and 2006. This indicates that the monsoon arrival would be on time in the first week of June in Kerala before it gradually spreads to the rest of the country, he explained.
He further explained that the Climate Forecast System model outputs does show that large parts of North India may experience moderate deficiency. He said that the North West in particular could experience moderate deficiency in overall precipitation even as most of Southern Peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall.