Majboor vs Mazboot sarkar: Let people watch daily tantrums, the BJP’s game plan in Karnataka
Bengaluru, Jan 21: The drama in Karnataka never seems to stop and resort politics was back with allegations that the BJP is trying to form the government. First the BJP led its MLAs to a resort in Gurgaon and then it was followed by the Congress leading its men to one on the outskirts of Bengaluru.
Over the past week, many reports have suggested that the BJP wants to install its government in Karnataka and in this regard it would force some from the Congress to resign.
However there is a realistic chance that 4 to 5 MLAs may resign from the Congress, but that too would not be sufficient for the BJP to form its government. Insiders of the state BJP unit say that they are aware that the government cannot be formed as it does not have the numbers.
Moreover, the Speaker of the House can sit over the resignations for a couple of months as a result of which the House strength would not be reduced. Observers say that one must look at this entire drama in the perspective of the crucial Lok Sabha elections set to be held in the next 100 days.
Karnataka is the BJP's gateway to South. It is the only southern state where it can get a high number of seats. Moreover, it has had its government in Karnataka, which makes it a very strong player.
There are 28 seats up for grabs and the BJP would want to take as many as possible. When each seat for the BJP would be crucial in the Lok Sabha polls, Karnataka becomes a very important state for the party.
The biggest fight for the BJP in 2019 would be the alliances. There are alliances to fight in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh. Even in Karnataka, the BJP would be fighting a Congress-JD(S) alliance. The recent local body elections and the by-polls have seen the alliance performing well and this has proven to be a headache for the BJP.
Some observers are of the view that if the alliance fights the polls together it could end up getting anything between 18 to 20 out of the 28 seats. Minus an alliance, the BJP could end up getting anything between 17 to 20 seats.
Hence if one looks at it in this context, a troubled alliance would be beneficial for the BJP. Installing a government, by toppling the existing one would be counter-productive for the BJP as there is a chance that popular sentiment may work against it. Hence in such a situation, the bickering within the coalition is best suited for the BJP.
Moreover, the BJP would also look to send out a message to the voters in other states that alliances do no good. The slogan would be Majboor vs Mazboot Sarkar ( Desperate vs Strong Government).
Dr. Sandeep Shastri, leading political scientist tells OneIndia that the Central leadership would be happy for the government in Karnataka to collapse as this could pose a serious problem to the alliance in 2019. However the leadership also has at the back of its mind that bringing down a government could change the focus. The party's image would have suffered and also taken the focus away from the Prime Minister's leadership.
Ideally, the BJP should focus on the next Lok Sabha elections. They should let the alliance continue and let the people watch the daily tantrums, he also says.