Madhya Pradesh polls: Bundelkhand may not be a cakewalk for BJP this time

Bhopal, Oct 25: Madhya Pradesh will go to Assembly elections on November 28 and the experts are busy predicting whether Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is in power in the state since 2003, will be able to win his fourth consecutive term this year.

In 2013, BJP won 20 out of 26 seats in Bundelkhand

One of MP's crucial electoral battle will be fought in the Bundelkhand region. The region has 26 Assembly seats out of which the BJP had won 20 in 2013 (in 2008, it had won 14 of these 26 seats while the Congress won eight and others four). Will Chouhan be able to produce the same magic around this time? The ruling saffron party has two major challenges to meet in this region and they are the anti-incumbency mood and the resentment among the upper caste voters against the over the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act (or SC/ST Act) issue.

In Sagar district, BJP has 7 of 8 seats

In Sagar, a district in Bundelkhand region, the BJP might face a tough challenge this time. The saffron party had won seven out of eight seats in the district in 2013 and lost only Deori to the Congress. This time, it could be far from a cakewalk, said the local people. If one goes by the pundits' takes, the Congress could not only retain Deori this time but also snatch the seats of Surkhi, Bina and Sagar from the ruling party.

In 2013, the Congress had lost Surkhi by just 141 votes while the BJP won in Bina and Sagar constituencies by 18,000-plus and 8,000-plus votes, respectively. The remaining four seats - Rehli, Khurai, Naryawali and Banda - which were won by the BJP last time, could also see close contests this time. Khurai and Rehli are seats of the state's two prominent ministers - Bhupendra Singh and Gopal Bhargava - respectively, and the saffron party supporters will keep a close watch on the outcomes of the result in Sagar district. The upper castes' resentment over the SC/ST Act could be one concern for the BJP in this district.

In Chhatarpur, BJP has 5 out of 6 seats

Anti-incumbency and resentment over the SC/ST Act is also being felt in Chhatarpur district - which also falls in the Bundelkhand region. According to analysts, there is no Chouhan wave this time and the BJP could face a strong anti-incumbency challenge here. In constituencies like Chhatarpur and Malhara seats, the BJP had won by narrow margins in 2013. This time, in Rajnagar and Chandla constituencies in the district, too, the saffron party will have to beat the odds.

In the three other districts of the Bundelkhand region - Damoh, Tikamgarh and Panna, the BJP won 8 out of 12 seats while the Congress won four.

In Tikamgarh, the BJP won three out of five seats in 2013 while in Damoh (MP Finance Minister Jayant Malaiya is from this constituency) and Panna, it won three (of four) and two (of three) seats, respectively. This time, issues like fuel price hike, corruption and unemployment besides anti-incumbency and SC/ST Act may make the BJP's task a tad more difficult in all those seats. Infrastructure and non-alliance of the Opposition parties could, however, make things go in the BJP's favour.