Is India working on Agni-6? What could be the ramifications if it is test fired
New Delhi, July 10: Ballistic missiles play a key role in the international geopolitics. The range and type of warhead a missile can carry determines what is called a sphere of influence of particular nation. Long range nuclear capable missiles are strategic weapons which means that it can not only spook the enemy nation with possible consequences if used, but can also serve as a deterrent. Deterrence, in layman terms, is nothing but planting the fear of retaliation in the mind of the adversary.
Most long range nuclear capable ballistic missiles with advance striking capabilities are developed to serve as deterrents. The basic concept is 'If you strike, I can strike back and wreak havoc', it is this fear that prevents war and hostility.
Coming to Indian ballistic missiles, Agni-5 is India's most advanced long range missile which was inducted into the service after multiple trials. Whenever Agni series missiles are test fired, especially Agni-4 and Agni-5, a prompt statement comes from both China and Pakistan. The Chinese response to Agni-5 tests are particularly elaborate as this missile can reach almost all parts of the Chinese mainland.
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There have been speculations that India could be working on a longer range ballistic missile - Agni-6. While some reports have suggested that Agni -6 could be in the hardware development phase, some others have gone on to the extent of claiming that Agni VI is being given the finishing touches by the DRDO. The DRDO and the MoD have been tight-lipped about it and no clear statement has been given in this regard.
The fourth test of the nuclear-capable, intercontinental Agni-V missile on 26 December 2016, it was reported that Agni-6 could be armed with MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) capability which is an advanced technology that allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads, with each warhead capable of striking a different target.
Agni-6 could be an ICBM with 8,000 km - 10,000 km range. Developing it or even the mere announcement that India would be developing it in future is a very tricky situation. For one, India would be breaking out of the regional context. Range of ballistic missiles is a contentious issue. Many European nations and experts in the US are likely to argue that why should India develop a 10,000 kms range ICBM when its furthest rival is China.
The
range
of
Agni
5
itself
is
a
mystery
of
sorts
as
China
claims
that
it
can
travel
as
far
as
8,000
kms.
The
DRDO
claims
that
Agni
5
has
a
range
of
5,000
kms.
After
Agni-5's
previous
test,
China's
ruling
Communist
Party-run
tabloid
Global
Times
said
in
its
editorial,
"India
has
broken
the
UN's
limits
on
its
development
of
nuclear
weapons
and
long-range
ballistic
missile...New
Delhi
is
no
longer
satisfied
with
its
nuclear
capability
and
is
seeking
intercontinental
ballistic
missiles
that
can
target
anywhere
in
the
world
and
then
it
can
land
on
an
equal
footing
with
the
UN
Security
Council's
five
permanent
members."
While accusing India of violating limits imposed by UN on nuclear and long range missile development, the editorial further said that Pakistan should have those privileges in nuclear development that India has.
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"In general, it is not difficult for India to produce intercontinental ballistic missiles which can cover the whole world. If the UN Security Council has no objection over this, let it be. The range of Pakistan's nuclear missiles will also see an increase," it said.
In a way China is hinting that it would back Islamabad if Pakistan chooses to develop long-range missiles. Now that would seriously hamper peace and stability in the sub-continent, as the existing reasons were enough.
If India unveils Agni 6, then it may irk the US and some European countries. India would be risking sanctions if it blatantly goes ahead and tests Agni 6. India is a rising economic power and at this juncture, it would not like to sour economic ties with Europe. A missile of 10,000 km range is bound to make European nations uncomfortable and this may have an impact on trade ties.
What do we know so far about Agni-6 or Surya ICBM:
The information here is based on what is available in the public domain. We would like to mention at the outset that all these are based on speculations in leading defence publications.
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Many reports have claimed that the DRDO is working on a three-stage Agni VI missile. Agni 6 could be a three-stage solid fuel ICBM missile which will be heavier and thicker than the Agni-V. Agni-VI could possibly be able to carry 3 tonne warheads thrice that of Agni-V which can carry only 1.1 Tonne warheads. Agni-VI will be the first missile to have the capability to carry 4 or 6 multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV) payloads.
It
would
be
based
on
the
components
of
the
polar
space
launch
vehicle
(PSLV)
and
the
Agni
IRBM,
and
that
it
will
have
a
range
between
8000
and
12,000
kms.
DRDO
usually
has
a
development
gap
between
each
Agni-series
of
around
4-5
years.
It
has
been
over
5
years
since
Agni-V
was
developed
and
this
has
led
to
speculation
that
its
successor
could
be
ready.