In event of a non-BJP, Cong govt, a dark horse would emerge as India’s next PM
New Delhi, May 09: Who will win the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This is a million dollar question that everyone wants to know, but for a clear picture one would need to wait until May 23.
The last two remaining phases are crucial and would be a real test for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as well the other opposition parties. A recent meeting between the chief ministers of Telangana and Kerala, K Chandrashekar Rao and Pinarayi Vijayan had raised eye-brows.
Top political analyst Dr. Sandeep Shastri says that KCR is keeping all his options open. He would pitch tent with the party that is closer to forming the government. He is now seeing a non-BJP, non-Congress front emerging and in this event he senses a chance for himself.
"At the end of the day for me, whether the NDA slides to 220 or rises to 280, it would be five to six states that would make all the difference. Whether the BJP is pushed to 20 or 50 in Uttar Pradesh is important as it would decide where the NDA stands".
"The second is Rajasthan and this would be a crucial state. The third is Karnataka and one needs to see if the BJP would be ahead or will the Congress-JD(S) have the upper hand".
"Many believe Maharashtra would see some change. It is said that within the NDA, the Shiv Sena is not doing too well. The BJP would actually carry the Shiv Sena with it. The other crucial states are West Bengal and Odisha. Will the BJP enter double digits in Bengal or can it put a hold on the BJD would be crucial factors. In the other states the trend is visible. I do not see any major change".
"With regards to North East, it is important strategically, but not numerically. Even if the BJP were to do well, it would provide a marginal advantage. Other than Assam, none of the other states in this region have more than 2 Lok Sabha seats, says Dr. Shastri. We are talking about 28 seats in all. It is politically important, but is not an A factor," he also says.
"In UP, the crucial factor would be the vote transfer. The fate of the Mahaghatbandan depends on this factor. It is the chemistry that would decide what happens in UP. It would depend on whether the vote transfer is 50 or 80 per cent. If it were to be 80 per cent, then this would be very bad news for the BJP," he adds.
"If there is a non-BJP, non-Congress government a lot of factors would depend on who the next prime minister of India would be. According to me there cannot be a non-BJP or non-Congress government totally. How critical would the Congress be is one factor".
"I feel that at the end of the day, a dark horse could emerge as the PM in case a situation such as this emerges. I also do not see the Congress emerging as a big force. However if the BJP is unable to form the government, I don't see the party lending support to anyone. It would rather sit in opposition, force a collapse and hope that fresh elections are held," Dr. Shastri says.