In 2014, it was Today's Chanakya which was spot on
New Delhi, May 19: Exit polls are one of the most-awaited events in any elections. The voting for Lok Sabha Elections 2019 came to an end on Sunday at 6 PM following which several pollsters released their exit poll predictions. Major national pollsters including News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis, Times Now-CNX, NewsX-Neta, Republic Bharat-Jan Ki Baat, Republic-CVoter, ABP-CSDS and Today's Chanakya will reveal their numbers ahead of the counting of votes on 23 May.
Poll predictions based on exit and opinion polls have gained much traction in the past decade with television's penetration deepening in India alongside the mushrooming of online news portals. Sometime they get the predictions right, sometime the analysis goes for a toss.
However, the accuracy of exit polls has always been a point of contention. However, all exit polls need to carry the standard statutory warning - this might not reflect reality.
The exit polls in 2004 and 2009 failed to accurately predict the results of the elections.
Who was close in its prediction?
Today's Chanakya was spot on for the second consecutive time in 2014 in predicting the final outcome of an election. It was the only exit poll that was closest to the verdict delivered by 505 million voters that year. Others, such as Times Now, fell way short. Times Now predicted 249 for the NDA and vastly overestimated UPA's numbers.
The political arm of the consumer research agency RNB Research had predicted 340 seats for the NDA with the BJP's share as 291 seats on May 12, 2014, the last date of the polls. It placed 70 for the UPA and 57 for the Congress.