If Doklam standoff escalates into war, China stands to lose more than India
China said that if the Doklam standoff turns into a war, then it will not limit its strike to Sikkim alone. While China has been hurling empty threats at India, what it must realise is that it tends to lose more in the event of a war.
First and foremost what one must bear in mind is that it has had its fair share of problems with all its 14 neighbours. While there are problems with the neighbours, China also has a positive trade balance with most of its neighbours owing to a export-oriented economy.
An all out war would shake this balance and many of its neighbours will hit the panic button which could cost China dearly. China must also bear in mind that its ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which is today over 60 billion dollars would become shaky in the event of a war. It will lose India's protection of its ambitious project in the event of a war and China cannot afford the same.
An all out war with India will also not go down well with the United States and Japan. It would also lead to the escalating of tension on the South China sea where China has made a sovereign claim. The hegemony of the Chinese has been challenged by the US, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan and Philippines. Any escalation of tension or all out war with China will see these nations backing India and this would have a ripple effect on the South China sea.
A war would see the Indian Navy choking the Chinese. China has investments at the Chittagong port in Bangladesh, Cocos Keeling in Myanmar, Djibouti, Hambantotat port in Southwest Sri Lanka and Gwardar port of Pakistan. A war would see the Indian Navy getting aggressive and hostile. China cannot afford being choked by the Indian navy in all these locations.
Indian analysts say that China will only hurl threats and is aware in the event of an all out war it has more to lose. China is very protective of its investments and understands the grave risks that awaits them, if they go for an all out war with India, analysts also say.