From anger of upper caste to farmers, MP CM has to battle it out at many fronts

New Delhi, Oct 17: During chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's Jan Ashirvad Yatra in Madhya Pradesh, he was not only shown black flag but a shoe was hurled at him. Protesters shouted slogans against several ministers outside their houses in Gwalior and Bhopal especially raising slogan against the newly passed law restoring provisions of the Scheduled Castes And Scheduled Tribes (Prevention Of Atrocities) Act, which was struck down by the Supreme Court of India on March 20, 2018. Otherwise, the BJP was pretty comfortable in the state but this has emboldened protestors to take up many other issues.

BJP leaders in Delhi including senior minister have realised sense of unease among upper castes across the country but it has its visible impact in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. There is no point ignoring such issues by any chief minister when elections are round the corner. The amended SC/ST Act restored power of the police to immediately arrest the person committing crime under the law and will be denied anticipatory bail to the person accused of such crimes. As per a rough estimate, there are around 13 per cent upper caste population in the state which is getting united against this.

How upper cast can damage BJP's prospect?

Resentment among upper caste communities was continuing for long for being ignored but SC/ST Act proved to be the last nail in the coffin and mobilisation of the upper caste started after Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan attended a conference of Anusuchit Jati Janjati Adhikari Karamchari Sangh (AJAKS) an umbrella organisation of SC/ST employees in June 2016 and announced koi mai ka lal aarakshan khatm nahi kar sakta (no one dare end reservation). The Madhya Pradesh government later challenged in the Supreme Court, a Jabalpur high court order against reservation in promotion. Gradually the upper caste people started uniting leading to the formation of Samanya Pichhda Alpsankhyak Kalyan Sanstha (SAPAKS) an organisation of employees from the general, other backward classes (OBCs) and minority communities.

There is a need to understand that Scheduled Caste form 14 per cent of the population of the state while there are around 22 per cent Scheduled Tribes. The BJP won 28 out of 35 assembly constituencies reserved for SCs, and 31 out of 47 seats reserved for the STs in 2013 Assembly elections.

The SC and ST population was of the view that the Congress failed to do justice with them. Upper caste too was fully behind BJP but now they are looking for some other options and other alignments. This is the reason of the real worry for the political fallout of the controversy. Will this issue inflict political damage or not, this is the real concern of the BJP leaders. The BJP leaders feel that it certainly is not going to help the case. The BJP leaders are saying that the issue has blown up at a wrong time. The chief minister is well aware of the problem so he is visiting across the state and is very conscious of the problem. Chouhan returned to power in 2013 with 45.7 per cent vote share and 166 seats. But any slip from the support from SC/ST or upper caste or the backward classes might prove to be detrimental.

Farmers' killing still fresh in their mind

Farmers' crisis is very big in the state and several protests of farmers have taken place. People's memory is still fresh when at least five farmers died during the protest in June 2017 and several got injured in Mandsaur district of Madhya Pradesh. They were demanding better prices in the drought-ravaged region that recorded a farm suicide every five hours in 2016-17.

Condition of growers of soya bean is bad but somehow they managed marginal profit but condition of onion growers in Mandsaur in very bad. They deal with falling profit, low credit flow, and many other issues. On June 1, 2017, farmers in the state started a peaceful protest, demanding loan waivers and better crop prices. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has promised a farm loan waiver if Congress is elected to rule Madhya Pradesh and there is some panic in the BJP. Chouhan is trying to win over farmers. He had held a public meeting in Mandsaur, the epicenter of farmer's protest incident, and claimed that people came in large numbers to support of the BJP.

Job a big issue among youths

Economic survey of the government this year revealed there were 11.2 lakh registered educated unemployed people in MP by the end of 2016. Only 422 got employment by 2017. Opposition is claiming that since the first investors summit in Khajuraho in 2007, not a single major industrial unit has come up in the state. Crime is also another area where Madhya Pradesh has dismal record. Around 1,823 cases were reported, the highest number of cases of atrocities against STs, accounting for 27.8 per cent followed by Rajasthan with 18.2 per cent that is 1,195 cases in 2016. Madhya Pradesh tops the list with 4,882 cases of rapes reported in 2016 alone as per National Crime Records Bureau data. Cases of malnutrition among children is a matter of concern. The Madhya Pradesh government accepted in the state assembly last year that 28,948 children had died in one year alone, but denied that each death was because of malnutrition. The CM tried negate this with a flagship Sambhal scheme of power at Rs 200 per month and some other government schemes. It aims to cover more than 2 crore people.

Anti-incumbency factor in the state

Better roads, improved power supply and different social welfare schemes work in favour of the Madhya Pradesh chief minister but a majority of people complain about local MLAs. This has reached to the central leadership. Party wants to change at least 70 MLAs including many minister due to anger against them. A survey and internal feedback will decide who will get ticket. A clear leadership is working to the BJP's advantage but it is also battling 15 years of anti-incumbency. The resurgence in the Congress poses a challenge to the BJP government in the state. But the BJP is organisationally better prepared for the election.

Corruption charges against the government

Vyapam is examination, admission and recruitment scam. It involved politicians, senior and junior officials and businessmen systematically employing imposters to write papers, manipulate exam hall seating arrangements and supply forged answer sheets by bribing officials.

The scam involved 13 different exams conducted by Vyapam, for selection of medical students and state government employees including food inspectors, transport constables, police personnel, school teachers, dairy supply officers and forest guards where the final results were allegedly rigged.

The exams were taken by around 32 lakh students each year, many of whom were actually paid proxies for other undeserving students.