Fourth Covid wave in India likely to hit around June 22, projects IIT-Kanpur study
New Delhi, Frb 27: The fourth wave of Coronavirus pandemic in India may peak between August 15 and 3, 2022, a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur has projected. According to the researchers, India India may witness fourth wave of COVID in June.
Earlier, they had made prediction for third wave and it was near accurate with slight deviation in dates.
In order to make the prediction for the fourth wave of COVID in India, the researchers, Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of the department of mathematics and statistic of IIT Kanpur, have used statistical model for their prediction.
With the use of "Bootstrap" a methodology, they compute the confidence interval of the time point of the peak of a fourth wave. This methodology can also be used to forecast a fourth and other waves in other countries as well, they said.
Meanwhile, almost all states and union territories in India have started seeing the drastic drop in COVID-19 cases. The recovery rates have also improved significantly.
According to the forecast, the researchers have said that if a fourth wave of Covid-19 emerges then it may last at least four months. The wave may reach the peak from August 15 to 31 and will decline after that, it said.
India has seen a declining trend in the number of covid-19 cases for some time now.