Ajit Jogi factoring into Chhattisgarh Assembly elections especially in plains
New Delhi, Nov 15: Though the first phase of Chhattisgarh elections are over but poll results will actually be decided by the voters of the plain area of the state stretching across from north to south. The real triangular contest in the state is being witnessed in this region only making things seemingly easy for the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the Congress managed to make some better moves in the state.
Sources said that if the alliance between Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) is effective on any seat that will impact not only performance but result on that particular seat. Emergence of former Congress leader and former chief minister of the state Ajit Jogi is actually troubling the Congress because it is the alliance that would eat into the Congress vote especially anti-incumbency voters.
Alliance is weaved into such manner that Richa Jogi, daughter-in-law of Ajit Jogi, is contesting election from Akaltara Assembly constituency as a BSP candidate but the most interesting story is that once founder of BSP Kanshi Ram tried his luck from Janjgir Lok Sabha seat of which Akaltara is a segment. But the seat is known for clear division between Dalits and the rest of the communities. Last time the Congress had won this seat when Jogi was with the Congress but this time uncertainty prevails over this seat.
Political analyst say that wherever there is a triangular or multi-cornered contest, the BJP stands beneficiary. But there are some adjoining seats like Janjgir-Champa seats where the BJP candidate defected to the BSP and it has become difficult to predict about over a dozen seats in Bilaspur and Janjgir. The equation is also changed in the state with Satnami Guru Baladas joining hands with the Congress. The community has 14 per cent population in the state helping the BSP-JCC alliance emerging a strong force in the region.
Sources said that the alliance is going to claim six-seven per cent votes in the state but it is certainly not correct to say that which party it is going to harm. It may harm and benefit both depending upon seats and candidates contesting elections. Moreover, polarisation of Other Backward Classes (OBC) will also be a deciding factor. The biggest OBC group Sahu is predominantly with the BJP which is 22 per cent of the 45 per cent of the OBC communities.
The BJP has fielded more Sahu candidates than thhe Congress but no big Sahu leader emerged in the state so far. So besides triangular contest candidate on the particular seat will also be the major factor.