Mahagathbandhan in UP may reduce BJP’s strength in LS polls, predicts IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll
New Delhi, Nov 15: The India TV-CNX Opinion Poll on Thursday has given a fair prediction for next year's Lok Sabha polls which clearly indicates that if the 'Mahagathbandhan' alliance of opposition parties materializes in Uttar Pradesh, then the strength of the ruling BJP party will reduce from the state in Parliament by almost half.
The opinion poll says Congress would draw blank yet again like 2014 polls. BJD had won 20 seats in Odisha despite Modi Wave while BJP managed to win just Sundargarh seat.
According to the survey, 'Mahagathbandhan' of opposition parties materializes in UP, then they can win in 49 seats, and the NDA's strength could be reduced to only 31.
The break-up for Mahagathbandhan: BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 8, RLD 2. Break-up for NDA is BJP 30, Apna Dal 1.
The opinion poll also predicted that if BSP, SP and Congress fail to fight the polls together, the BJP may win 55 out of total 80 seats, BSP 9, SP 9, Congress 5, RLD one and Apnal Dal one.
Vote share in that case could be: BJP 39.19 pc, BSP 20 pc, SP 20.55 pc and Congress 11.91 pc.
The nationwide India TV-CNX opinion poll survey was conducted between October 25 and November 12 in 171 parliamentary constituencies across six states.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections are still a few months away but political tussle is already heating up with Assembly elections in five states - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Mizoram.
The Assembly polls in these five states are being considered as semi-final ahead of the mega final likely to be held in April-May 2019.
There are 543 seats in the Lok Sabha and majority mark needed to form the government is 272 seats. In 2014 General Elections, BJP alone had won 282 seats and was able to form an absolute majority government. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had in 2014 won with an overwhelming majority, taking 336 seats.
It may be recalled that in 2014, the BJP won only 31.0% votes, which is the lowest share for a party to form a majority government in India since independence, while NDA's combined vote share was 38.5%. BJP and its allies won the right to form the largest majority government since the 1984 general election, and it was the first time since that election that a party has won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties. The United Progressive Alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, won 59 seats, 44 of which were won by the Congress, that won 19.3% of all votes.