Why AAP has a bleak future
[Read: Shazia Ilmi, Gopinath quit AAP]
Much water has flown down the Ganges and Yamuna since the beginning of the India Against Corruption movement, the formation of Aam Aadmi Party, their winning of 28 seats in December 2013 Delhi Assembly elections, their formation of a government in Delhi with outside support from Congress, the daily theatrics of Kejriwal & Company, the drama of resignation and portrayal of Kejriwal as martyr, the sudden decision of AAP to take the big leap and contest Lok Sabha elections, their fielding of candidates in more than 400 Lok Sabha seats, Kejriwal's decision to contest against Modi in Varanasi and the drubbing that Kejriwal's army got everywhere.
Defeat in Varanasi makes Kejriwal remember Delhi again
Having faced a humiliating defeat against Modi in Varanasi and after more than 96% of AAP's candidates having lost their deposits in the Lok Sabha election, Kejriwal & Company suddenly realised that they still have 28 seats in Delhi Assembly and thus it would not be a bad idea to again attempt a government formation in Delhi.
A few backdoor overtures made AAP realise that a beleaguered Congress is in no mood to entertain Kejriwal all over again and thus it was time for Keriwal to start a new round of drama. Having expressed his intentions to go for polls and seek a bigger mandate, Kejriwal's theatrics got an opportunity to showcase its skills when he was arrested on the Nitin Gadkari defamation case.
Same old tactics not working anymore
After much drama and melodrama in front of the news channels by Kejriwal and his followers, there was perhaps an expectation deep inside Arvind Kejriwal that his TRP would rise all over again and he would again get popular support of the people. On both the counts, he has been proved wrong. Further, his attempt of seeking forgiveness from the people of Delhi for resigning after 49 days as CM is unlikely to cut ice with the voters.
Kejriwal is yet to realise that he has been proved to be a hollow proposition
In fact Kejriwal is yet to come to terms with the reality that the nation has moved on and he has been proved absolutely a hollow proposition. On news channels he has been eclipsed by Narendra Modi and his magnificent victory, a result of tireless efforts, organisational skills and sincerity. Fact of the matter is that today no one literally cares for Arvind Kejriwal and his drama anymore. Having given a decisive mandate to BJP, the nation is waiting with bated breath from Modi's government to perform and no one has time for Kejriwals failed promises, lack of consistency and theatrics anymore.
Delhi is Unforgiving-Kejriwal would realise it now
Nowhere else perhaps the loss had hurt Kejriwal so much as the drubbing it got in Delhi, a place where even a few months before the Lok Sabha elections, AAP was expected to win at least 3-4 seats. But eventually it lost in all the 7 seats which went to BJP whose vote share has soared past even 50% in Delhi. While Kejriwal is attempting to make a comeback in Delhi in the forthcoming assembly elections, it is highly unlikely that he would be able to connect to the audience all over again.
Delhi may not vote for Kejriwal again: Here are the reasons
There are several reasons as to why Delhi would not be willing to accept Kejriwal again. In the first place, Delhi has not forgotten and forgiven either the drama of Kejriwal even after he became the CM of Delhi or the impulsive manner in which he resigned. If Kejriwal's resignation was for bigger ambitions, then those ambitions had a fall in this Lok Sabha election greater that even Humpty Dumpty.
Secondly, possibility is very high that the electorate of Delhi is extremely disgusted with Kejriwal for the manner in which he decided to contest against Modi in Varanasi. If this decision alone had cost him several lakh votes in Delhi, then his humiliating defeat in the hands of Narendra Modi was like a curtain on his credibility as a viable leader. Kejriwal failed to read the popular mood of the people and his decision to pit against Modi did cost him a lot.
Thirdly, unlike BJP, AAP does not have organisational strength and network. It was simply riding on popular disenchantment and frustration of people with corruption. Kejriwal was given a chance to work as a Chief Minister and improve systemic issues but he wasted that opportunity. After the result of the Lok Sabha election, it would be very difficult for the AAP workers and leaders to justify to the electorate again as to why Kejriwal left Delhi and went to Varanasi and what if Kejriwal had won in Varanasi and whether he would have bothered for Delhi in that case.
Fourthly, there is no doubt that there is a Modi wave right now going on in the nation which has multiplied manifold especially after the Lok Sabha election results were out and the stupendous victory of Modi led NDA is for everyone to see. This has made even the bitterest critic of Modi to accept his capabilities. Therefore, riding on this Modi wave, there is a high possibility that in most of the forthcoming assembly elections, it is this Modi wave which would catapult BJP to victory. The possibility of the same happening in Delhi remains most pertinent.
And last but not the least, it is not just the voters but also core members of AAP like Shazia Ilmi as well as corporate bigwigs like Captain Gopinath who had once reposed faith in the party have started quitting. This trend is expected to continue and many more are likely to quit in the near future. The quitting of Shazia Ilmi who has been in the past a key face of the party, is surely going to cost AAP quite a bit and it would be extremely difficult to the party to justify such resignations to the voters.
AAP is crumbling and Kejriwal better realise it....
The reality is that AAP is crumbling and the most important reason for the same is its inability to evolve as a political party and its fascination with theatrics, drama and histrionics. Such sensationalism has limited time span and beyond that it is extremely important for any organisation to get on with serious work of building the organisation and develop long term plans. AAP failed on both counts and its obsession with drama and protests has now started to hurt it badly.
Therefore, for all practical purposes, AAP may at most emerge as a distant second in upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. It may still win some seats but is highly unlikely to even cross the 15 seats mark, leave alone forming a government on its own. AAP is crumbling and its days are numbered as a party. And no one knows it better than the cronies who run AAP.