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Assembly polls: What will a 4-0 victory mean for Narendra Modi & BJP


The exit polls in the wake of the Delhi assembly election on December 4 have indicated at a 4-0 verdict in favour of the BJP (Mizoram is excluded for it is still to play a decisive role in the national politics). This black-and-white outcome in the semi-finals ahead of the big final next year is significant for not only the BJP but for the national politics as well.

For this would mean that in less than three months since his anointment as the party's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi has proved his critics wrong and produced a magic that even the previous generation of national leaders found difficult.

In the four states that have gone to the polls this season, namely, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP's best result so far was 3-1 in 2003 when the Congress retained only Delhi. If the 4-0 verdict comes true this time, it will mean a much bigger feat for Modi, compared to even greats like Vajpayee and Advani.

It will also signal a perfect ending to the BJP's succession issue. By leading the party to victory in other states (Modi is certain to get a bigger credit over the likes of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh or Vasundhara Raje in case the BJP makes a sweep), the Gujarat chief minister will do his mission to emerge a pan-Indian figure a world of good. The elevation outside the party will confirm him as the face of the post-Vajpayee era in the BJP.

Finding allies could become an easier task for Modi & BJP post this win

It was indeed a risk for the saffron party to test Modi in these assembly elections just six months ahead of the great battle but a 4-0 verdict will mean that a risk is worth a reward.

Another development in the post 4-0 period could be the BJP's gain in allies. For those who were wondering about the Modi phenomenon so far since he had mainly been a regional leader and that too a right-wing one, this emphatic victory will erase their doubt to a great degree. One wouldn't be surprised

if the likes of Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik, YSR Jaganmohan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu and Raj Thackeray begin to tilt towards the BJP, quickly or gradually, after witnessing the verdict in the four important states.

For leaders like Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati and the Left parties, the Congress's humiliation will be terrible blow. For, this would put into jeopardy the plan for a tacit understanding between the 'first' and the 'third' fronts to corner the second front.

For the Congress, this verdict could signal to a bigger problem. This will mean that the succession in the party hasn't paid off and the Jaipur enclave of February looks a distant moment. Rahul Gandhi's acceptability will be under a question even though his party tried to shield its senior leadership in the state polls to protect it from all kinds of adversity. The loss in four states will mean that Gandhi has failed to boost his party in important state elections for three years now. Expecting a rapid turnaround in another six months will be a bit too much.

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