CNN-IBN election tracker: JD(U) set to be decimated in Bihar

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New Delhi, March 31: The CNN-IBN's election tracker for the upcoming Lok Sabha election done jointly with the Lokniti, CSDS and The Week between March 18 and 25 revealed the following figures in various states:

[Read: Poll tracker for Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala]

West Bengal (42 seats)

Trinamool Congress (TMC) is looking a strong force. The net satisfaction index with the Mamata Banerjee government is 38% (it was just 17% in case of the central government) and 40% feel the TMC government's work will influence them while casting their votes.

Predicted vote-share and seats:

TMC to get 38%, as against 31% in 2009 (23-29 seats)

Left to get 25%, as against 43% in 2009 (7-13 seats)

Congress to get 16%, as against 14% in 2009 (4-7 seats)

BJP to get 12%, as against 6% in 2009 (0-1 seat)

Others to get 9%, as against 6% in 2009 (0 seats)

Narendra Modi is the most preferred as the PM in Bengal with 15% while Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi are tied in the second spot with 12%.

Assam (14 seats)

One of the few states where the Congress is likely to do better than 2009. Forty per cent satisfied with the UPA government.

Predicted vote-share:

Congress to get 44%, as against 35% in 2009

BJP to get 19%, as against 16% in 2009

AUDF to get 16%, as against 10% in 2009

AGP to get 11%, as against 15% in 2009

In Assam, Rahul Gandhi had an edge over Narendra Modi as the preferred PM candidate. Thirty-two per cent favours him as against 21% favouring Modi.

Bihar (40 seats)

The net satisfaction level with the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar has gone down to 32% (from 52% in February). Forty-one per cent thinks there has been development in Bihar but not much as the government claims. Fourteen per cent said there was no development in Bihar and all claims for development were false.

Predicted vote-share and seats:

JD(U) to get 16%, as against 24% in 2009 (2-5 seats)

BJP and its ally LJP to get 43%, as against 21% in 2009 (21-29 seats)

Congress and its allies RJD and NCP, to get 28%, as against 30% in 2009 (7-13 seats)

Others to get 13%, as against 25% in 2009 (0-3 seats)

In Bihar, 42% of those surveyed backs Narendra Modi as the PM, while just 10% backs Rahul Gandhi as the PM. Only 9% backs Nitish Kumar as the PM.

Jharkhand (14 seats)

The net satisfaction with the state government of Jharkhand is extremely low (-31%). Thirty-four per cent of those surveyed believes that price rise is going to the most key issue during polling. Jharkhand has 14 Lok Sabha seats.

Predicted vote-share:

Congress to get 30%, same as that of 2009

BJP to get 44%, as against 28% in 2009

JMM to get 6%, as against 11% in 2009

Odisha (21 seats)

The net satisfaction with the Naveen Patnaik government is 38%, while it is just 10% in case of the Centre. Sixty-six per cent of those surveyed in Odisha believes that the UPA government shouldn't get a chance again. Twenty-five per cent of those surveyed feels that development will the key issue while polling.

Predicted vote-share and seats:

BJD to get 34%, as against 37% in 2009 (10-16 seats)

BJP to get 30%, as against 17% in 2009 (3-7 seats)

Congress to get 26%, as against 33% in 2009 (0-4 seats)

Others to get 13%, as against 10% in 2009 (0-2 seats)

Forty per cent of those surveyed backs Narendra Modi as the PM, while 21% wants Rahul Gandhi for the top post. State Chief Minister Naveen Patnail is in the third position with backing of 14% of those surveyed.

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