CNN-IBN: Mamata to sweep WB, Cong to be decimated in Andhra

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Survey: Narendra Modi leads in Bihar
New Delhi, Jan 21: The IBN and the CSDS have carried out a pre-poll survey for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections across the country in the second week of January. How will the Congress, BJP, regional parties and the new kid in the block, Aam Aadmi Party, will perform in the big battle? Here is a look starting from the eastern part of the country.

[Read: NDA to get 211-231 seats]

 
WEST BENGAL (42 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
Trinamool Congress 31 33
Left 43 25
Congress 14 19
BJP 6 14
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
TMC 19 20-28
Left 15 7-13
Congress 6 5-9
BJP 1 0-4

  Other findings:

  • The UPA government should return to power: 29% said yes, 36% said no.
  •  Preferred PM: 18% wants Modi, 11% wants Mamata, 9% wants Rahul Gandhi.
  •  Thirty-seven per cent of BJP supporters want a BJP-TMC alliance.
 
ODISHA (21 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
BJD 37 33
Congress 33 31
BJP 17 25
Others 13 11
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
BJD 14 10-16
Congress 1 3-9
BJP 0 0-4
Others 6 0

  Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with Naveen Patnaik's BJD government: 67% spoke in favour while 29% against.
  • Naveen Patnaik's popularity as the chief minister: 70% in his favour while 26% not.
  • Fifty-one per cent people think the BJD should get a chance to form a government again (Assembly polls in Odisha are also due with the Lok Sabha polls this year)
 
BIHAR (40 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
JD(U) 24 20
BJP 14 39
Congress 10 11
RJD 19 15
Others 33 15
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
BJD 20 7-13
BJP 12 16-24
Congress 2 0-4
RJD 4 6-10
Others 2 0

  Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with Nitish Kumar government: 59% said yes while 38% said no.
  • Satisfaction with Nitish Kumar as chief minister: 63% said yes while 36% said no.
  • The Nitish Kumar government should be blamed for the blast at the BJP's Patna rally on October 27: 51% said yes.
  • RJD chief Lalu Prasad got adequate punishment for the fodder scam: 46% said yes, 19% felt it was too harsh and 19% also felt it was too little.
  • Preferred PM: 18% supported Modi, 15% backed Nitish Kumar, 11% favoured Lalu Prasad while 9% voted for Rahul Gandhi.
  • BJP supporters want a BJP-JDU alliance: 66%
  • Cong supporters want a Cong-RJD alliance: 57%
  • Cong supporters want a Cong-JDU alliance: 42%
  • JDU supporters want a BJP-JDU alliance: 55%
  • RJD supporters want a Cong-RJD alliance: 47%
 
ASSAM (14 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
Congress 35 47
BJP 16 19
AGP 15 9
AUDF 16 10
Others 18 15
Seats
Party 2009
Congress 7
BJP 4
Others 3

  Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with Tarun Gogoi as CM: 47% said yes, 40& said no.
  • Satisfaction with Tarun Gogoi's government: 50% said yes, 37% said no.
 
JHARKHAND (14 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
BJP 28 40
Congress 15 20
JMM 12 8
AUDF 16 10
Others 45 32
Seats
Party 2009
BJP 8
Congress 1
JMM 2
Others 3
 
ANDHRA PRADESH
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
Congress 39 24
TDP 25 21
TRS 6 11
BJP 4 10
YSRC - 22
Others 26 12
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
Congress 33 5-9
YSRC - 11-19
TDP 6 9-15
TRS 2 4-8
Others 1 0-4

Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with the Congress govt: 31% said yes while 55% said no
  • In Telangana: Satisfied with the Congress govt: 36%, not satisfied 56%
  • In Seemandhra: Satisfied 32%, dissatisfied 54%
  • Happy with Kiran Kumar Reddy as CM: 37% said yes, 54% said no, can't say 9%
  • The Congress govt should be given another chance (Andhra will also go to state polls this year): 14% said yes, 56% said no, 30% said can't say
  • In Telangana: 42% said no to another term to the Congress, in Seemandhra the figure is 70%
  • In Telangana, 34% feels Congress will benefit from the division of the state, 7% feels otherwise
  • Twenty three per cent of YSR Congress voters wants an alliance with the BJP for the LS polls
  • Forty-five per cent of BJP supporters wants to have an alliance with the TDP
  • Forty four pert cent of TDP supporters wants an alliance with the BJP
  • Projected vote share in Seemandhra (25 seats): YSRC 41%, TDP 28%, Cong 16%, BJP 9%, Others 6%
  • In Telangana (17 seats): Cong 33%, TRS 23%,  TDP 13%, BJP 11%, YSRC 1%
  • Preferred as PM: Narendra Modi 22%

[Read : BJP may get 41-49 seats in UP with 38% vote share, says polls survey]

 
KARNATAKA (28 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
BJP 42 32
Congress 38 42
JDS
13 18
Others 7 13
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
BJP 19 6-10
Congress 6 10-18
JDS 3 4-8

  Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with Siddaramaiah govt: 71% yes, 24% no
  • Satisfaction with Siddaramaiah as CM: 76% yes, 20% no
  • Will BS Yeddyurappa be an asset or liability for the BJP? 29% said asset, 43% said liability
  • Whose govt has been better? 46% voted for current Cong govt, 21% for previous BJP govt
  • Support for BSY's re-entry into BJP: 50% against, 32% for
  • Preferred as PM: Narendra Modi 28% (8% in 2013), Rahul Gandhi 19% (18% in 2013)
 
MADHYA PRADESH (29 seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
BJP 43 51
Congress 40 29
BSP 6 5
Others 11 15
Projected seats
Party 2009 2014
BJP 16 23-27
Congress 12 2-5
BSP 1 5

Other findings:

  • Dissatisfaction with UPA govt: 42% (30% in 2013)
  • UPA should get another chance: 26% said yes (35% in 2013), 59% said no
  • Preferred as PM: Narendra Modi 54% (23% in 2013), Rahul Gandhi 21% (15% in 2013)
  • Who will be a better PM, Modi or Shivraj Singh Chouhan? Modi 46%, Chouhan 30%
  • Who deserves credit for the BJP's recent win in MP? Chouhan 79%, Modi 4%
  • 73% in MP has heard of AAP. 48% wants AAP to contest from their seats, 22% inclined to vote for AAP
 
CHHATTISGARH (11 Seats)
Projected vote-share (in %)
Party 2009 2014
BJP 45 50
Congress 37 34
Others 18 2
Projected seats
Party 2009
BJP 10
Congress 1
BSP 1

Other findings:

  • Satisfaction with UPA govt: 29% (26% in 2013)
  • Deserves credit for win in Chhattisgarh in December: Modi 5%, Raman Singh 58%
  • Modi as preferred PM: 28% (10% in 2013)
  • Rahul Gandhi: 13% (8% in 2013)

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