Madhya Pradesh (230 seats): The Congress will increase its tally from 71 to 84 but yet will fall short of beating the powerful chief minister of the state, Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP won 143 seats in 2008 elections and its tally is likely to be 130 this year.
In terms of vote share, the Congress is to gain from 32 to 36 per cent while the BJP's vote share is set to increase from 38 to 40 per cent. The BSP's vote share will decrease by 1 per cent, said the survey.
Did the Congress leave it for far too late in Madhya Pradesh?
Some experts felt giving the responsibility of the state to a young face like Jyotiraditya Scindia might help the Congress while others felt the Congress might have left it for far too late to take a popular leader like Chouhan. Scindia himself said the main agenda is not the chief minister's post but the ‘shoddy' governance of the BJP leader. The Congress has raised issues like law and order problem, overlooking the Jal Satyagrahis and anti-incumbency in general to be going against the BJP government of Madhya Pradesh.
Preferred chief ministerial candidate of MP:
Shivraj Singh Chouhan (BJP) - 56%
Jyotiraditya Scindia (Congress) - 23%
Digvijaya Singh (Cong) - 3%
Uma Bharati (BJP) - 4%
1. Leadership of Shivraj Singh Chouhan
2. Congress's lack of a clear leadership
3. Anti-incumbency of the UPA at the Centre
Chhattisgarh (90 seats): Raman Singh is set to make a retain power with a clear majority in the upcoming polls, the Cvoter poll survey said. While the Congress's seat is likely to increase from 38 to 40, yet the BJP with a reduced tally of 47 seats (50 in 2008) is favourite to continue with its rule in the state. The BSP's tally is set to remain the same (2). The deadly Maoist attack against Congress leaders in the state in May could generate sympathy votes for the party.
1. BJP government's food security policy
2. Ajit Jogi effect on Congress
3. Maoist attack against Congress leaders
4. Anti-incumbency of the UPA at the Centre