New Delhi, May 20: A number of pre-poll and post/exit poll surveys predicted the results of the just-concluded Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory (UT).
Who hit the bull's eye when the final results came out? Here we take a look at the projected and actual results for these elections.
Pre-poll: ETV Bangla closest
Nobody predicted it right in the pre-poll surveys for West Bengal where the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) swept with 211 seats, contesting alone. The closest predictions were made by ETV Bangla and 24 Ghanta-GFK Mode who said the TMC could win 201 and 200 seats, respectively.
Both pre-poll surveys conducted by ABP Ananda-Nielsen and one by India TV-CVoter and one by Times Now-India TV-CVoter had predicted less than 184 seats for the TMC, its tally of 2011. For the Left-Congress alliance, the ETV Bangla's prediction of 61 came nearest to the actual tally of 76. For the BJP, both the CVoter surveys predicted four seats while it was three in reality.
Post/exit poll: Chanakya hits bulls' eye
Of the exit polls, NewsX-Chanakya's prediction of 210 seats for the TMC was near perfect. It also predicted 70 for the Left-Congress alliance though its prediction for the BJP was out too many (14). The India Today-Axis My India prediction was perfect for BJP.
Pre-poll: Times Now-IndiaTV-CVoter comes closest
Several pre-poll surveys were conducted for the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls, both by national and local channels. Of all, the Times Now-India TV-CVoter survey of April came closest to perfection by predicting 130 seats for the alliance led by the ruling AIADMK.
The AIADMK alliance got 134 out of 232 seats. It was also the India TV-CVoter survey which predicted the closest for the DMK alliance in March. Its prediction was 101 for M Karunanidhi's party which got 98. A lot of pre-poll surveys predicted zero seats for the DMDK-led third front. Elections.in gave them 31 seats.
Two more seats of the Assembly will go to polls on May 23.
Post/exit poll: CVoter nails it
Of the exit polls, only the Cvoter predicted the AIADMK alliance to win the election with 139 seats. All other national channels projected the DMK alliance to win this election. The CVoter predicted 78 seats for the DMK alliance. Tamil Nadu's Thanthi TV also gave the AIADMK 111 seats, seven short of the majority. Its prediction of 99 seats for the DMK was, however, almost spot on.
Pre-poll: ABP-Nielsen comes closest
The March pre-poll survey carried out by ABP-Nielsen predicted the closest tally for the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance out of 126 seats. Its prediction fell eight short of the actual figure of 86. Its prediction of 36 seats for the Congress was 10 more than its actual tally of 26. The Times Now-IndiaTV-Cvoter's prediction of 12 was the closest for the AIUDF, which finished with 13 seats.
Post/exit poll: Chanakya predicts the best
Of the exit polls, Chanakya again came closest to perfection by predicting 90 for the BJP alliance and 27 for the Congress.
Pre-poll: India TV-CVoter comes closest
India TV-Cvoter's prediction of 89 seats for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), 49 for the United Democratic Front (UDF) and one for the BJP-led NDA came closest to the reality.
Post/exit poll: India Today-Axis My India predicts it right
Of the exit polls, India Today-Axis My India's projection of 88-101 seats for the LDF was better than 38-40 for the Congress and 0-3 for the NDA.
India Today-Axis My India's exit poll predicted it right for the UT where the DMK-Congress alliance came to power with 17 out of 30 seats. The exit poll predicted the alliance to secure 15-21 seats and the NR Congress, the last time's winner--- 8 seats.