New York, April 19: The primary polling New York on Tuesday (April 19) will be very very significant for each of the candidates in both the Democratic and Republican camps in their pursuit to grab that all-important presidential nomination.
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- US poll 2016: Candidates and their delegates
It's not just the fact that the Big Apple state has a high number of delegates on the offing makes it important. It also has some other significance:
For Bernie Sanders:
The Vermont senator will go to the New York primary following a series of victories in primaries held in March and April. Sanders will look to eat into Hillary Clinton's lead by 244 delegates. New York has 247 delegates who will be allocated proportionally, which means the candidates will roughly get delegates as they perform in the popular vote. A near tie-up in New York will also help Sanders challenge the perception that his success is limited to highly white states. [Trump rakes up '7-Eleven' memory ahead of NY primary]
For Hillary Clinton:
Polls have shown the former US secretary of state with a steady lead among the lower teens. A win in New York is also important for Clinton despite her having an edge for that would strengthen the peception about her candidature. Losing her current home state where she had served as a senator between 2001 and 2009 could give a blow to the idea that Clinton is an inevitable candidate. [Russia prefers Trump as next US president]
For Donald Trump:
Though Trump has every reason to take the nomination race beyond his rivals' catch by registering a thumping victory in his home state, a slip here could also see the story going awfully wrong for the man. Polls predict Trump to get 54 per cent, much ahead of John Kasich at 22 per cent and Ted Cruz at 18 per cent, but the tricky law of delegate allocation could still see the Manhattan tycoon struggling.
As per rules, of a candidate gets over 50 per cent of the statewide votes, he gets 14 delegates straightaway. If one gets below 20 per cent, he will not get any. If none of the candidates win above 50 per cent, then the 14 delegates are allocated proportionally to the one who gets over 20 per cent.
The rest of the delegates are allocated based on who bags the congressional district contests. A candidate needs at least 20 per cent of the votes in a district to qualify for any of its three delegates. A candidate who gets more than 50 per cent, bags all three and if none gets more than 50 per cent, he who gets the most number of votes earns two delegates and the runner-up gets one delegate in the district.