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In the ongoing crucial battle in Uttar Pradesh assembly election between the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, the BJP and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP has a good chance of winning the UP elections.
According to ground level assessments by NDTV team of Prannoy Roy and other experts who travelled across the state, where elections are being held in seven phases, it is predicted that the BJP has the best chance to win in UP with 55% to 65%, followed by the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance with a 30% to 40% chance and the BSP with 5% to 10%.
The UP legislature has 403 seats including 84 reserved for Scheduled Castes and two for Scheduled Tribes. And the party must win at least 202 seats to form a government in the state. In order to win 202 seats, one has to gain at least 35% of vote share to get a majority in the state.
In 2012, the SP got 29% of the total votes to win 226 seats in an assembly of 403 members. The BSP won 80 seats with 26% vote share but the BJP had won only 47 seats with its 15% vote share. In 2014, the BJP changed the politics in UP with winning 73 seats along with ally Apna Dal grabbing 42% of the total vote share. While the SP earned 22% vote share.
This time the BJP is hoping to gain votes from urban voters, the youth and general caste voters. While the SP has partnered with the Congress to win Muslim-Yadav vote bank and also targeting muslims who may vote for BJP. While the BSP is counting on woman vote and the Jats, who account for around 20% of western Uttar Pradesh's population.
The analysts have further compared UP with the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, claiming that the SP-Congress 'gatbandhan' has changed the electoral numbers game in the state. But UP is not Bihar, here we have 'mini-gatbandhan', which meant that only 36% of the vote share from SP alliance with Congress, but in Bihar it was 47% of vote share with just JD(U) with 20%, RLD with 19% and the Congress with 8%.
While the SP aims to retain to power in UP, the BJP and BSP looking to script a comeback in the state after 15 and five years. The last of the seven phases will take place in 40 constituencies across seven districts on March 8. Votes will be counted on March 11.