Future of Opposition's Grand Alliance against Modi in Nitish Kumar's hands

Such a grouping, at state and national level, will stand little chance of becoming a meaningful reality without him and his leadership.

Will he, won't he? Seems to be the question on everyone's mind about the decision that Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, would take regarding quitting from the ruling alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the state.

Yadav, who himself is currently barred from contesting elections after convictions in the fodder scam, along with his family members like his sons who are part of the state government, are currently under the gaze of investigation agencies related to corruption allegations.

These developments have put pressure on Bihar chief minister, whose party, the Janata Dal (United) forged an unlikely alliance with Yadav, his main opponent for more than two decades, in an attempt by both to keep the BJP at bay in the state.

Though it might seem like a difficult situation for Nitish, an attribute that is unique to him among other state leaders should make him not only comfortable but also see him get the best out of the situation. This uniqueness comes from him being the only state leader courted by all major political parties. This stands true of his friends (those against BJP) and foe (BJP) alike.

Such a luxury allows him the choice of picking whose support he wants to run his government in Bihar. So no matter what political pundits of any inclination say, the fate of the JD (U)-RJD-Congress 'Mahagathbandhan' (Grand Alliance) is in Nitish Kumar's hands.

This will greatly influence the attempts to forge a joint alliance, against BJP at the national level too, as such a grouping will stand little chance of becoming a meaningful reality without him and his leadership.

By no means will it be an easy call for Nitish to make keeping in mind the impact it could have on his future political plans, both at the national and state level.

Nitish has 'been there, done that'

This is not the first time that Nitish will have to make such a crucial decision about choosing who to pick or keep as an ally. The chances of him taking the right decision this time increase if the history of his past choices and the results they gave, especially for him, are taken into account.

The first of the two times he broke ranks and went his separate ways came in the early 90's when he decided to part ways with Yadav, who was an extremely powerful leader at the time. This led him to fall out of the state's political limelight, and it took him more than a decade before he could come back with full force.

The second was just before 2014 general elections when his party broke its alliance with BJP when it became clear the then Gujarat Chief Minister and now Prime Minister, Narendra Modi would lead NDA in the elections.

Though not in the same way, both the main players that will influence the chief minister's decision this time were a part of his previous ones. And a common link between both occasions was his dislike for playing second fiddle to those he considers his contemporaries. While at the time, both looked as mistakes being committed, they eventually helped him to come back stronger than before.

Such a detail may give a clue to what his next step might be. If he responds in kind to BJP's overtures, he will clearly not be an equal to Modi, whereas if the opposition lets him lead the way, at the state and national level, making him the face of a united opposition to Modi, he may still continue to be part of it.

Plausible outcomes in Bihar

The seat arithmetic in Bihar assembly has made the calculations and choices to be made extremely clear, and this is the reason behind the JD (U) flirting with the idea of coalitions with either side.

At present, the JD (U) has 71 MLAs and RJD is the single largest party with 81 seats. To get a majority in the assembly, a total of 122 seats are required. While the BJP (NDA) and the Congress have 58 and 27 respectively.

This leads to only a handful of possible scenarios that can play out. First, and the most likely of these is that the current arrangement continues with certain steps taken by RJD which might include Yadav's son, Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav, resigning or some other measure being taken by the party to counter the criticism that the alliance is facing.

This would be a favourable option for Nitish, as he has fewer seats than RJD. If he can force its partner's hand into such a step, it would make his standing stronger among the public as well possibly lead to lesser interference from RJD leaders in the governments' working. It will also help him get more seats in the next state elections.

The second option is the break up of the alliance and Nitish forming the government with the support of BJP. This though, might not be very favourable to Nitish as it will make him play second fiddle to BJP and might cause loss of credibility among his followers for going back on his strong stand against BJP and Modi.

The third would be the alliance breaking and a fresh election being held as no parties will be able to come together to form the government. This is unlikely as with the elections for Lok Sabha less than two years away, it might lead to a lot of volatility, in particular for the regional parties.

His image and ambitions will decide the next step

The two things that will decide the future course of action would be Nitish's attempt to keep his image of being a leader who represents good and corruption-free governance, and his political ambition for the rest of his career.

In what is rare in modern day Indian politics, both his supporters and critics consider him free of personal corruption. This is why allegations of impropriety on his senior ministers belonging to RJD has led him to the party to take actions on this front.

On the governance front, he has a proven track record of an effective administrator not only as a chief minister but also as union minister during the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's terms.

These qualities have in the past, and still, do see him touted as a leading contender for a leader at the national stage. Though he has not said so openly, many have talked about him of ambitions of moving to the centre. This though was negatively affected by Modi's rise. Something that many political analysts have pointed to as the reason for Nitish's break with his long-term ally.

Now with the elections to challenge Modi approaching in 2019 and those for Bihar in 2020, if his government survives the full five years, what Nitish decides should be the stage where he wants to spend the rest of his political career will determine what happens in Bihar now and more importantly to the Grand Alliance in the state and that proposed at the centre.

If he decides to stay in the state, the chances of his breaking away from the 'mahagathbandhan' increase whereas if he sees himself as an alternative to Modi, he will maintain the status-quo.

So the ball is clearly in the court of the parties in opposition to Modi, and what they can do to placate the current controversy and offer Nitish enough incentive to stick with them for now and future elections.

Noted historian and commentator, Ramachandra Guha recently said, "There is a genuine leader in India. That is Nitish Kumar. He is a leader without a party, the Congress is a party without a leader. If Congress gives him a chance to lead the UPA, it might have a future."

While Guha might be talking of situation that might just be considered fantasy by many, the idea that it conveys is close to a real solution to the problems of the joint opposition.

And to achieve something like this, the effort will have to start in Bihar and with the present controversy. With various parties planning to come together to find a way first to keep the coalition against the BJP in states and centre going, they would be hoping that Nitish decides to stick with them instead of joining Modi.

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