The calculations of CVoter poll are based on "the cumulative tracking poll data of respondents interviewed across all assembly segments. Data have been weighted to known census profile, and the margin of error is plus/minus 3 per cent at state level, and plus/minus 5 pc at regional level."
According to the survey, hung assemblies are predicted in the both Haryana and Maharashtra.
What has the poll predicted about Haryana?
As per the an IndiaTV-C Voter tracking poll, in the 90-seat Haryana assembly, the BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party with 33 seats, closely followed by Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal with 28 seats. The Congress party, ruling the state for the last 10 years, is projected to win 16 seats. In the 2009 Assembly elections, Congress had won 40 seats.
As per the poll, the alliance of Haryana Janhit Congress-Haryana Jan Chetna Party may win 9 seats.
If we go by this poll, then it is pretty evident that for BJP, the ‘Mission 60' will be near to impossible in the state.
What has the poll predicted about Maharashtra?
As per the poll, in Maharashtra also not a single party will get majority on its own.
The poll projects "BJP as the single largest party in the 288-seat assembly with 93 seats, followed by estranged ally Shiv Sena with 59 seats. The Nationalist Congress Party is projected to win 47 seats, followed by former ally Congress with 40 seats.
Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is projected to win 27 seats, while smaller parties and independents may win 22 seats," says the tracking poll.
Vote share in Haryana and Maharashtra
After the Congress-NCP coalition breathed its last and the 25-year-long marriage ended between BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, it seems that contest is going to be five cornered in the state as Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) may also butt in and cut into the vote share of BJP and Shiv Sena.
And if we talk about Haryana, then it's certain that the Congress, which ruled the state for 10-long years will not be able make it a win this time. The party is already going through hard times as it faces strong anti-incumbency in the state due to massive land scams and ill-treatment with a number of IAS officers who tried opening a can of worms for Hooda government.
Thus, it seems that the anti-Congress votes will be divided between BJP, Haryana Janhit Congress and INLD.
As per the poll, vote share wise, in Maharashtra, BJP is going to get 23 pc votes, followed by Shiv Sena with 19 pc, NCP 18 pc, Congress 17 pc and MNS 9 pc votes.
Issues galore in Haryana and Maharashtra
Elections are always won on the basis of issues of the public and as per the tracking poll, in Maharashtra, where the 15-year-old Congress-NCP Government is battling a series of scams including Adarsh Housing Society Scam, Irrigation Scam etc, 26.7 per cent of the respondents said, price rise was the most important issue.
While in Haryana, where the Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led 10-year-old Congress Government is facing a strong anti-incumbency, 21.9 per cent respondents said that unemployment, business problems were the issues which troubles them the most.
Good news for BJP
When the respondents were asked about who they think would come to their rescue and solve all their problems, then -- in Haryana, 32.9 pc respondents and in Maharashtra 33.1 pc said BJP could solve their problems in a better manner.
Not only this, adding more to BJP's kitty was that 75.3 and 75.6 per cent respondents in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively said that they wanted change in the state governments as they were not happy with the work of the current Government.
And when they were asked whom they will vote for, 37.8 pc respondents in Haryana and 26.9 pc respondents in Maharashtra voted for BJP.
BJP needs a face in both Maharashtra and Haryana
If BJP will continue to bank upon the strategy of collective leadership, then it may have to pay it as the Party can't BJP can't continue to rant about the Modi wave beyond a limit. There is a difference in the Lok Sabha elections and assembly elections and the party needs to understand this and should soon project faces for these elections.
This will play a very pertinent role in the victory of the party in the upcoming Assembly elections.
So far no faces have been named by the party for the Chief Ministerial post, and this will cost the party dearly even as the poll predicted that "when asked whom they thought was the best candidate to become Chief Minister, 16 per cent opted for Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, 12.8 pc opted for Prithviraj Chavan, 11.9 pc for BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, and 5.5 pc for MNS chief Raj Thackeray."
Even in Haryana BJP was not the priority for the CM's post as "in Haryana, 16.6 pc said they considered Bhupinder Singh Hooda the best candidate for chiefminister post, while 14.4 pc opted for INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala. BJP leader Captain Abhimanya was preferred by only 8.2 per cent, while 7.4 pc opted for HJC leader Kuldeep Bishnoi."
The BJP will have to stop banking on ‘Brand Modi' and will have to raise the right issues and project their faces in both the states to make it a win-win situation in these polls or it may pose a problem for the party.