All exit polls got it right, except in Tamil Nadu

New Delhi, May 19: The five assembly election results on Thursday proved right all exit polls, except in Tamil Nadu. As predicted, the Congress got drubbing in Kerala and Assam, the Left made a comeback in the southern state, BJP marked a maiden win in the northeastern state, and Mamata Banerjee retained power in West Bengal.

However, predictions on anti-incumbency factor working against AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa were wide off the mark as the Tamil Nadu chief minister retained the government -- albeit with a reduced majority in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly.


Five pollsters had released their survey results on Monday -- the last day of the staggered elections held in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, and the union territory of Puducherry.

Except for the CVoter predictions, all agencies predicted a clear win for the DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu, riding on what was perceived to be a strong anti-incumbency wave against Jayalalithaa.

CVoter, however, predicted a clean sweep for the AIADMK with 139 seats, leaving the DMK-Congress alliance at the second place with 78 seats.

As the final results emerged Thursday, the AIADMK was set to win 133 seats and the Congress-DMK combine 98. The AIADMK had 203 and DMK alliance had 31 members in the outgoing assembly.

India Today-Axis had forecast the AIADMK was likely to get 89 to 101 seats. NewsX-Today's Chanakya gave it 90 seats, ABP News-Nielsen 95-99 seats, and News Nation 95-99.

In West Bengal, the exit polls had unanimously forecast Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will retain power but with a slightly reduced majority.

However, not only did she retain the power, Banerjee even bettered her legislative majority. The Trinamool Congress got 212 and the Congress-Left alliance just 75 in the 294-member house. It had 184 members in the outgoing assembly.

For Assam and Kerala, all exit polls had suggested strong drubbing for the Congress, and predicted power to the BJP in the northeastern, border state and comeback to the Left in the god's own country in the southeastern strip.

The BJP got 87 and the Congress 23 in the 140-member Assam assembly.

In Kerala, the Congress led United Democratic Front was routed, managing to salvage 46 seats of the 73 previously held. The Left returned with a thumping majority of 92, rising well from the existing 67.


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