With a massive 5.36 percent vote share in the Presidential Electoral College, the AIADMK, despite being divided house, is an asset that the BJP does not want to lose. But will the camaraderie last after the Presidential elections? A massive shakeup is likely in Tamil Nadu after the July 17 when polling for the President post will take place if no consensus candidate is nominated.
Over the last few months the Edappadi Palanisamy camp, as well as the O Panneerselvam camp of the AIADMK, have been trying to cosy up to the centre. Fully realising the importance that AIADMK, one of the largest stakeholders in parliament, the BJP has been playing big brother to both factions. The BJP was confident of getting complete support of both factions in the Presidential elections. With TTV Dinakaran's return and some MLAs and MPs extending support to him, the calculations have been upset.
What the AIADMK has to offer
The AIADMK carries a vote share of 5.36 percent with 135 MLAs and 50 MPs. The vote of each AIADMK MP, similar to MPs from other states, is valued at 708 while each AIADMK MLA's vote is valued at 176. The AIADMK has 37 MPs in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha. Votes in Parliament will translate to 35,400 and stands at 23,760 from assembly with a total value pegged at 59,160 votes. This can contribute in wholesome to the NDA running short of 1.85 lakh votes to achieve the simple majority.
Even if the BJP were to assume that it would manage to get the support of all MLAs and MPs supporting Palanisamy and Panneerselvam, close to 27 MLAs from AIADMK are now supporting TTV Dinakaran. Whether they will support the BJP or not is still a question considering that TTV Dinakaran and his supporters had claimed to have been 'targetted'. With 27 MLAs supporting him Dinakaran now controls 4,752 votes of the AIADMK, a number good enough to dent the BJP's number game.
Where the BJP stands without the AIADMK
BJP and its allies together have a total vote share of 48.64 percent. While the NDA has 4,57,342 votes, it is short of 1.85 lakh votes to achieve the margin of 5.49 lakh votes. The UPA has a mere 35.47 percent vote share and is going all out to get the support of smaller parties. The target group is a batch of six political parties that hold 13.6 percent vote share put together. AIADMK is the largest contributor out of the six parties. The BJP is going all out to get the undivided support of the AIADMK but the favour is likely to last only until the President is chosen.
In the 2012 Presidential polls, the then chief of AIADMK J Jayalalithaa as well as Naveen Patnaik, along with the BJP, had supported Purno A Sangma against Pranab Mukherjee who the UPA's candidate. While the BJP on its own has become stronger thanks to the massive victory it has been in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, it needs parties like the AIADMK to put a person of their choice in the President's chair. While Jagan Mohan Reddy's party is expected to balance out the loss that BJP may incur due to AIADMK legislators, the number game remains tricky.