AIADMK crisis: Despite merger, numbers are not in Edappadi Palanisamy's favour

In less than six months, Edappadi Palanisamy has lost support from a chunk his MLAs.

The crisis in AIADMK is back and with it has come the threat to Tamil Nadu government. In case Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisamy is asked to prove his majority, the government may fall short of simple majority. With 19 MLAs withdrawing their support to Palanisamy, the Chief Minister's chair is now shaky.

Here is how the numbers stack up in the current scenario for Edappadi Palanisamy's government.

• The total strength of the AIADMK in the Tamil Nadu assembly, without considering camps: 135
• Out of this, one is the speaker and hence won't be counted. The number then stands at 134
• Out of the 134 members, three are independent candidates who had supported the Palanisamy government earlier. They are today undecided. This brings down the number to 131.
• Out of the 131 legislators of the AIADMK, 19 have withdrawn the support to Edappadi Palanisamy bringing the count down to 112.

All in numbers

• Total strength of Tamil Nadu assembly: 234
• AIADMK's total strength: 135
• AIADMK's total voting strength: 134
• Independent MLAs(part of AIADMK): 3
• MLAs supporting Dinakaran: 19
• MLAs supporting Palanisamy: 112
• Simple majority in assembly: 117
• Palanisamy short of: 5

122 legislators had voted in favour of Palanisamy in February. In the current situation, Palanisamy and Panneerselvam put together have the support of only 112 MLAs. This is way short of a simple majority of 117.

Speculation is rife that apart from the three independent MLAs, seven more MLAs from the Palanisamy-Panneerselvam camp may jump to Dinakaran's camp. In that case, Edappadi is sure to lose a floor test if asked to prove majority. Even if the Palanisamy-Panneerselvam camp manages to win over independent candidates and gets three more votes, they will still be short of two votes to achieve a simple majority.

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