New Delhi, June 23: The attack on the Afghanistan Parliament yesterday is an eye opener and things to expect in the coming days.
It is clear that the Afghanistan Taliban does not want peace and has pulled out of all talks with the Government. Immediately after the attack, India told the UN that the international community needs to take a fresh look at the manner in which the military presence was being drawn down in Afghanistan.
India's statement is a clear indicator as to how bad the situation in Afghanistan is. The fact that the Taliban has stop talking peace with the Afghanistan government is a grim reminder that the battle is going to be bloody and India cannot just wait and watch.
As a first step India would review its security policy in Afghanistan. After all the Taliban has on its mind Indian installations and has spared no effort to target them.
Why the military draw down in Afghanistan has to be reconsidered?
Afghanistan is a situation which is going beyond control. As reported yesterday, the Taliban is in no mood for peace. It does not want to run a parallel government in Afghanistan, it wants to run the only government. The ISI on the other hand is not helping and has tried and forged a relationship with the Afghan intelligence.
As part of this unwritten code, both the intelligence agencies of Pakistan and Afghanistan shall not criticize each other for any terrorist strikes. The result of this was seen in the Pakistan press yesterday when they went all out in blaming the Research and Analysis Wing for the attack on Parliament.
To add to the problem there are several factions that are present in Afghanistan. The ISIS has landed, there is the al-Qaeda and the Taliban which has splintered.
India feels that Afghanistan with a new government the country needs transition time and hence the drawdown of the military by the NATO needs to be reconsidered. India also made out its case by citing the UN report which stated that armed clashes have increased by 45 per cent compared to last year.
Ethnic rivalry at its peak:
The armed clashes in Afghanistan off late have all been ethnic clashes. Each group is trying to get the better of the other. The Taliban however has been launching several offensives in the recent past and is attempting a return.
With no clear solution in sight, India would be more than happy if the international forces are not further reduced. Today there are 12,000 troops of the International Security Assistance Force left in Afghanistan. This was a major draw down as the IASF had an initial deployment of 140,000 troops.
Dealing with foreign fighters:
According to the UN there are 7,180 foreign fighters in Afghanistan today. This is a huge number and would require a dedicated force to counter it. India has also made it clear while quoting the UN report that these foreign fighters thrive in Afghanistan with the support from the borders (read Paksitan).
The advent of the ISIS into Afghanistan will only turn the situation from bad to worse. They are likely to bring in more fighters and before anyone realizes they would have built up a sizeable force.
As much as India would want to engage in Afghanistan, it does realize that the presence of the International troops is extremely important. With the ISI controlling a large number of these foreign fighters, it becomes clear that they would look to target Indian installations more.