Chanakya said so. No, we are not talking about the ancient sage, teacher, philosopher, economist, jurist and royal advisor and the creator of Arthashastra.
But we are not talking about anything less than him also. Bihar elections have kept everyone on the edge with an uncertain outcome, thus the surveys come handy. Chanakya, being the most reliable, had predicted that the Modi wave will show its affects on Bihar too.
The initial leads justify the same. BJP's numbers are gallopping, leaving behind the coalition by 17 votes. At around 8:31 am, BJP was at 38 and Nitish+ at 21. By 8:35 am, the difference was striking when there was not much improvement in NItish's condition, while BJP had already raced to 41, just 81 away from simple majority.
Certainly Nitish would have skipped a beat and may by now have visualised the outcome already.Modi effect versus the Mahaganthbandhan
Clearly, the 'Maha' in the 'Ganthbandhan' does not stand the Modi wave. Nitish may have joined his former anti -- Lalu Prasad Yadav, the infamous fodder scam convict and the leader of the Yadav community, as a symbol of unity and collective efforts of bringing the state forward. Interestingly, it boomerangued. People chose to look away, for the very fact that they want a taint-free government and do not believe in a gathbandhan that has a corrupt leader on board.
As they say, a drop of ink can spoil the milk.
Modi's history, on the other hand is not hushed-up, he neither denies his role in the Godhra, Gujarat riots not accepts the, Moreover, his developmental moves in Gujarat and national-level schemes have come to the party's aid. Interestingly, he chose to launch his pet schemes just before or during the elections, diverting the people's attentions.
Modi has a mini-wave in Sushil Modi
Forget the namesake, the fact that Sushil Modi was working as a deputy CM under Nitish Kumar's leadership is reason enough to vote for him. Nitihs, undoubtedly is an honest leader and concentrated on Bihar's law and order and infrastructure during his tenure.
Clearly, Sushil has the credibility to counter-balance Nitish's clean image and understated charisma. Also, his administrative experience makes him the fittest CM for the state.
Possibilities that heighten the wave
Given the heated-up situation in the Bihar polls, the undecided voters will now get a chance to decide their leader. Most likely, they would switch to the side that is winning.
Consider this, The Mahaganthbandhan of RJD, JD(U) and Congress is a coalition of incompatibles. BJP , on the other hand is more logical for the upper castes and Dalits, along with significant economically backward OBCs (P.S: BJP's slogan: Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas that breaks the caste-based politics pertinent till now).
The voters have turned intelligent and know now that a caste-based political head will do not good to the state. That too, an unstable government that is yet to decide on its seat-sharing (if they come to power) will lead to squabbles that will further delay development.
[Read: Bihar Assembly elections 2015]
The spoilers-the third front (Mulayam Singh-NCP), independent candidate Pappu Yadav and Asaduddin Owaisi's Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen- will only reduce the chances of Nitish winning a clear majority. While Pappu Yadav will take away few of the votes from Lalu's clans, the rest that could have been won by Nitish will now be divided among the rest two.
All said and done, the fate of Bihar is crystal clear. The 'wave' will rest only when it hits the shore.