Politics is a fast-changing field. The scenario will change dramatically once the Lok Sabha elections are here and in fact, fresher like the AAP will have a herculean task before itself to repeat its latest result in Delhi along with the national polls, in case both are held together.
In four months, Narendra Modi will be a big challenge for the AAP to take on
There are certain factors that will make the AAP's task difficult from here on and one gets the feeling that the party, which has just learned to walk, is preferring a more difficult path at the moment. May be the inexperience and the post-poll excitement have blurred their reason at the moment.
Can the AAP reproduce the magic?
Narendra Modi will be a big factor in a few months
Once the Lok Sabha polls arrive, the Narendra Modi factor will have a big say in the electoral affairs. The next big polls will be essentially a contest between a demoralised Congress and a revived BJP with the regional parties aiming to capture big chunks of the votebanks. In such a situation, only euphoria will not help a party to emerge into a major force. The AAP, by not cashing on the opportunity now to form a government in Delhi, is perhaps taking a massive risk to let itself get eclipsed.
During national polls, Delhi will be a part of the bigger game
The AAP has evolved in Delhi mainly because the common man in the capital was disgusted with the Congress-led national government. The national and local issues did not remain separate in these polls and the Manmohan Singh government's failure got transformed into the routing of Sheila Dikshit. When the national polls arrive, the anti-Manmohan Singh government votes are more likely to become pro-Modi votes. The Kejriwals will have to deal with Modi and not Harsh Vardhan then. Where will the AAP find itself in such a scheme of things?
Congress & BJP will use the welcome break to narrow down the gap with AAP
The Congress and BJP will use this welcome break to rethink their strategy and give tickets to more suitable candidates. This can erase the AAP's lead and jeopardise its prospects in the next polls. The party has won with close margins in quite a few number of seats and maintaining the same lead there won't be easy, particularly when the Modi factor becomes more prominent. The BJP will be a clear beneficiary from the AAP's action or rather inaction at the moment, boosted by a moral urge.
The euphoria of winning the latest polls will die down
The AAP, by taking a rigid stand on the government formation, is allowing the euphoria to die down. It would have been a much better if it joined the BJP and instantly begin pursuing its promised goals and decide its strategies accordingly. In case the two couldn't function together and Delhi went to the polls again, the AAP would have been less answerable to their voters.
But Arvind Kejriwal's party decided to waste a positive mandate and delay the necessary action that the cornered people of Delhi had hoped it to address immediately after the results came out. The huge expenditure associated with the re-polling will also leave a negative legacy of the AAP.
AAP has miles to go before broadening its base nationally
It will also be an immense challenge for the AAP to handle the Delhi re-polls in a year of Lok Sabha polls. The party has essentially produced a magic in a city like Delhi where traditional factors like identity or caste don't play much of a role. Certain quarters are already projecting Kejriwal as the prime ministerial candidate of a fresh political front. To what extent will that idea succeed?
During the national polls, the expectation on the AAP will be huge to do good in other states as well where the complex issues are decisive and the toll could be seen on its performance, including in the Delhi re-polls, for its organisational and ideological pillars are yet to get strong nationwide. It would have been much better had the AAP went to the national polls with four months of experience in governance, even if in a coalition, in Delhi.