Who will score high in Bihar by-polls? Nitish-Lalu’s arithmetic or Modi’s chemistry

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lalu and Nitish testing ground for by-poll
On super Thursday, there will be a big test for parties after the Lok Sabha election, and that will further prove whether the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's wave is still working or it has lost its charm.

Will Bihar BJP's all-in-all Sushil Modi come out victorious or he will be overshadowed by grand alliance of Lalu-Nitish and Congress.

By-election for 10 seats in Bihar, three seats each in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh and two in Punjab is scheduled for Thursday.

On asking who will they vote for, people of the State(Bihar) have given mix reaction. Some are saying that irrespective of the fact that they voted for Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha election, this time they will go for Nitish as he has done a lot for State.

But some of them have raised their apprehension after former Chief Minister joined hand with RJD chief Lalu Yadav, who is notorious for Jungle raj in nineties.

Will Sushil Modi prove himself that he is well deserved for CM candidate?

Sushil Modi, who is known as SuMo is single most renowned face of BJP in the State. Recently in the month of June, he was promoted in Bihar's political hierarchy and was made as leader of the party in the legislative council.

Former Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi was the one who started war against RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav in fodder scam.

He had filed the PIL in Patna high court in the scam which made Lalu's ride tough on political wicket in later years. Junior Modi, who was LoP in the State Assembly from 1996 till 2004 was also in the front for religiously supporting the formation of new State Jharkhand in 2000.

When Nitish Kumar was the Chief Minister of the State, he had held the post of deputy Chief Minister for more than seven years.

Thursday's by-election will be a big test which will prove that SuMo could be a vote puller on his own.

And if BJP performs well then full credit will go to this man as he is canvassing religiously these days while other big leaders are staying away.

Though there is couple of more leaders like leader of Opposition in the Assembly Nand Kishore Yadav, then senior MLAs Prem Kumar and Satyadeo Narayan Arya, but Bihar BJP is known with SuMo only.

So for Sushil Modi, this is golden change to prove himself and further anointing his position as CM candidate of party.

Will Lalu-Nitish marriage of convenience get people's approval?

RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and former Chief minister Nitish Kumar coming together after putting apart 20 years of their animosity will be on test.

Whether this grand alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress), which is considered as marriage of convenience, will really be able to appeal people of the State or that will be rejected by people, will be decided on August 25 when the result will be declared. Nitish-Lalu is riding their hopes largely on votes of Yadavs, Kurmis and Muslims.

These groups had not given their support wholeheartedly in Lok Sabha election, which had paved the way for humiliating defeat in general election. Narendra Modi's wave disturbed all caste equation as he himself belongs from EBC category.

Moreover, people must be wary about the return of 15- year of Jungle raj during Lalu's term, which was notorious for hooliganism and mis-governance.

Low turnout in recent rallies, done together by Lalu and Nitish is proof that people are in double mind.

Arithmetic of the poll

If we dissect the poll Arithmetic of recently concluded Lok Sabha election result, the grand alliance is ahead than BJP-led NDA. Nitish, Lalu and Congress's combined vote share was over 44.6%, where individually RJD received 20.6% votes, JD(U) 15.8% and the Congress 8.2%.

In comparison to this, BJP-led NDA got 39.4% of votes in Bihar.

Similarly the vote percentage Arithmetic of 2010 Assembly election is also in the favour of alliance RJD-JDU and Congress.

In last State election, the so called unholy alliance had got 49.8% while the BJP received 16.5% of votes.

While this poll per-centage is in favour of Lalu-Nitish alliance, there is report which says all the seats going for by-poll were dominated by BJP in Lok Sabha election.

Not only that, in 2010 State election, BJP had won six out of these 10 Assembly seats going for re-poll on Thursday.

NaMo wave still relevant

Narendra Modi led BJP had decimated RJD- JDU and Congress in Lok Sabha election.

NaMo wave was so much that RJD got only 4 seats while JDU, Congress managed 2 seats each.BJP along with RSLP got 32 seats in 40 Seat Bihar Assembly.

But much water has flown since then. Modi has his share of hits and misses during three month of his tenure.

People of the Bihar might not vote keeping him in mind as this time this is regional fight not national one.

Moreover, Nitish and Lalu has exhorted people against Modi just to garner votes. Centre Government has yet not done anything credible, which qualify them to ask for votes. Demand for special Status is still hanging the fire. So BJP is riding all hope on SuMo not NaMo.

Survey shows tough fight

According to poll survey done by ABP News-Nielsen, there is close fight between grand alliance (RJD-JDU-Congress) and BJP alliance.

Poll survey predicts that the BJP-led alliance will get 4 seats. Similarly grand alliance will also get same number of seats, while at 2 seats there will be a tough battle.

Good news for BJP is that when asked that whom they will vote for, 53 per cent respondents nodded in favour of BJP while, 20 per cent for JDU, 13 per cent for RJD and around 7 per cent for the Congress.

According to survey, 5 constituency will go for JDU- RJD while 5 for BJP alliance.

The startling fact survey said that the BJP will get 39 per cent Kurmi votes while JDU get 39 per cent. As far as Yadavs votes concerned, 32 per cent goes into the BJP's kitty while, 49 per cent to RJD.

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