The ISIS, al-Qaeda in the Sub Continent, Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and now the naxals all figure in the alerts issued by the Intelligence Bureau (IB) ahead of the Barack Obama visit to India.
Going through each of these alerts it suggests that each of these groups are in a desperate mode and would want to orchestrate a "spectacular attack," ahead of or during the visit.
Let us analyse here what the intent of each of these terror organizations is and why they have pressed the desperation button ahead of the Obama visit.
Technically the ISIS does not have a dedicated module in India. All the ISIS has in India are sympathizers. The ISIS plans for India is on a longer term and there is no immediate danger of this group turning into a terror outfit on Indian soil immediately.
However, it is these lone wolves subscribing to the ISIS who cause the problem for the Indian security agencies.
Several of these persons leaning towards the ISIS would look to build their tribe and earn the respect of the big bosses in Iraq and Syria.
Hence when it comes to the ISIS, the Intelligence makes it clear, "beware of the lone wolf sympathizers."
The al-Qaeda in the Sub Continent:
The al-Qaeda in the Sub-Continent or the AQIS is a relatively new outfit. It has been on a desperate mode with one failure after the other.
Under the leadership of Asim Umar, the AQIS has not yet been able to make a mark in India even when it comes to recruitments.
The AQIS would look to carry out a strike during the Obama visit as this would give them the necessary boost and also announce their arrival in the sub-continent.
The AQIS long term plan is however in Afghanistan and it would be looking to rope in several Indian recruits to join their war.
For them to boost their recruitments they would need to prove their mettle and an attack ahead of an Obama visit would give them the reputation that they have been looking for.
Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI):
An outfit on the run or on the loose. Their five members who had broken out of the Khandwa jail in Madhya Pradesh have been giving the agencies nightmares.
The hatred the SIMI has towards America is no secret and all their meetings when they turned radical only focused on atrocities by America and Israel.
The SIMI would be desperate to make its mark and send across a clear message to the US by trying to carry out an attack.
The specific alert regarding the SIMI is, however, in Rajasthan where it is said they would try and target American tourists.
This is one of the most serious alerts and even America had issued an advisory to its nationals in India due to this alert.
In terms of carrying out a strike there cannot be any group more dangerous than the al-Qaeda. Any attack that it undertakes is blessed by the Pakistan establishment which means they have the support of the ISI, the army and the navy.
While Pakistan may be watchful and not strike at India during an Obama visit as the repercussions could be disastrous for them, there is a remote chance of someone in the establishment losing his head and approving an attack.
There has been a warning from the US not to attack India only during the Obama visit and the Lashkar may take this seriously.
It is already reeling under pressure due to various factors which include the banning of its financial unit the Jamaat-ud-Dawa.
Although their key interest has always been Bangladesh, we have seen that they believe in making in India. The Burdhwan episode is proof of this.
This outfit generally restricts itself from attacking India. However a large number of its cadre have been arrested and their modules by and large busted.
An attack during the Obama visit would only be aimed at revenge against the Indian agencies. The IB says that they could carry out a fringe attack only to prove a point and embarrass us.
Not enough that the Indian agencies are dealing with the threats of Islamic terrorists ahead of the Barack Obama visit, now a new alert pertaining to possible naxal attacks has been issued.
The intelligence bureau has alerted states prone to the naxal problem to be on "Very High Alert" during the Obama visit as they will try and carry out a strike in a bid to embarrass the Indian establishment.
The alert comes in the wake pamphlets opposing the visit of Obama being circulated. The pamphlets have been circulated by the Naxal's Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee spokesperson Gudsa Usendi. Obama wapas jai or go back Obama was the subject line in these pamphlets.