With Republican Donald Trump winning back-to-back primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many have started asking the question (or rather apprehensively) if the tycoon is indeed inching closer to the presidential nomination.
It is true that Trump is taking big leaps forward to that nomination but that doesn't rule out the fact that he can't fall short of his aim.
Here is how Donald Trump's march towards winning the GOP presidential nomination can still be unsuccessful.
Trump's real challenge will come up when the race of five (after Jeb Bush withdrew after the South Carolina primary) is reduced to a race between two. Till the South Carolina polling, Trump was leading Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz each by 17 points. And according to a an article in The Fix, a politics blog in The Washington Post, in case the contest becomes one between Trump, Rubio and Cruz, Trump would lead over Rubio by 12 points. And if Cruz also goes out, it almost becomes a tie with Trump 46 and Rubio 45.
Trump leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz each by 17 points in the current six-candidate race. If you eliminate the other three candidates, though, Trump's lead over Rubio drops to 12 points. And if you then take Cruz out, it's a virtual tie: Trump 46, Rubio 45.
Hence, it becomes tougher for Trump as the gap narrows. The process of elimination could see the alternative to Trump emerging more, even leading to his defeat finally.
Trump's lead will narrow significantly if the race becomes a two-men show
There is however, a but in this. This thinning of contest and the resulting strengthening of the anti-Trump votes need to take place fast or else Trump could be beyond reach of the others in the race of pocketing delegates. Elections in states will occur fast from now on and it will be interesting to see how fast the process of elimination of candidates is.
After Bush's exit and poor rankings of John Kasich and Ben Carson, one would feel that the race ultimately becomes a three-cornered one but as long as it is so, Trump will continue to lead over Rubio and Cruz. Will it be a two-men race eventually? Cruz is expected to do good on Super Tuesday and that will help the man he defeated in Iowa.