While Narendra Modi was mentioned far too often on Twitter in April last week, May too didn't have a bad start.
Data gathered from Twitter, supported by the NUS, rolled out interesting facts. For instance, Rahul Gandhi's popularity was inversely proportional to that Narendra Modi. Arvind Kejriwal got the benefit of attention for his histrionics in Varanasi yet again while he was protesting the attack on Somnath Bharti's car. His graph wasn't bad for the start, went up in the penultimate week and then went down-not a steep fall though.
Call it the Modi effect or the Rajnikanth effect, Modi kept trailing on the top ever since he met Rajnikanth on April 13th. Baba Ramdev's "honeymoon" remark, though not good in taste, garnered a few more mentions of BJP's Prime Ministrial candidate. The nation was eager to know what the leader had to say, but he stayed aloof. From April 7 to April 13th, the counts were constantly above one lakh because of his television interviews and nomination filing on April 24.
The Chennai twin bomb blast on train shot Modi's graph by hundreds when it was revealed that the bomb was set to explode in Andhra Pradesh where Modi was rallying on May 1, but for the delay in the train.
Narendra Modi may have got some sympathetic votes there, but the icing on the cake was his verbal tiff with Priyanka Gandhi, especially the one where he is alleged to have said that Priyanka was like his daughter. Though Modi has released the fully taped interview, discounting the fact, the entire fiasco was reason enough to be engaged with the Modi mania.
Graph April 21-April 27: Modi at his peak
While the Modi graph dipped and rose almost instantly, Kejriwal's popularity was as unpredictable as his tantrums. The graph formed a jigsaw pattern that was influenced by the way the audience took his whims and woes. He got slapped by a disappointed party worker in the second week of April, which hit the headlines right away. The equally disappointed audience wanted to know more about one of their own who could have done better. Thus, the rise in the graph, which shows 80,000 mentions.
The subsequent weeks between April 14th to April 20th projected below 60,000 counts, implying that the public did not take his visit to the party worker's home (who slapped him) very seriously. That was April 9th.
It is not unknown that he is getting all the media attention only when he is being attacked. While the negative support for the entire last week was just 50%, positive support was just 25%.
Things, however, looked better on April 14 when he went to Varanasi to campaign. But, there was no improvement in his positive support. Interestingly, even the stone attack incident failed to get the attention of the public.
Graph April 7-April 13: Arvind Kejriwal
Rahul Gandhi's popularity has taken a backseat completely in the last few weeks of April. Firstly, because his sister had taken over his campaigning in Amethi and it was Priyanka who grabbed all the attention; secondly, he may already have given up all hopes. The only time, he received some mentions was on April 12th when he filed his nomination for the Lok Sabha election.
It was 40,000 views in the period from April 7 to 13th, below 20,000 between April 14-20th and 30,000 in April 21 to 27.
Graph April 14-April 20: Rahul Gandhi
The results are clear and the time too short for a turnover. Modi may clearly be victorious without any efforts this time during the Lok Sabha election. [Read previous social media study]