Sino-Indian Relationship under Modi- Reflection of a New India
Later on this month, the Indian Prime Minister would be visiting US for another historic event where among others he would be addressing some 20,000 NRIs in New York. No prize for guessing that the Americans would not like to be kept behind and much on the lines of the Chinese and the Japanese, they too would be more than willing to put money into the Indian market which has started showing new signs of optimism with the emergence of the Narendra Modi at the helm of affairs.
The Indian Story - Bouncing Back with Modi
One cannot deny that none of this would be charity work and most of the investment commitments are primarily because India in spite of being one of the largest economies in the world ( 10th in terms of nominal GDP and 3rd in terms of PPP) has incredible potential.
India's rising population of middle class and the unique demography consisting of a huge proportion of young people with high level of aspirations provide the perfect opportunity for foreign investors to park their money for the long haul game. It is a win-win situation as India too requires investments running into hundreds of billions of dollars to shore up its infrastructure and to boost manufacturing.
The Chinese Challenge
However,
among
the
three
key
meets,
it
is
the
Chinese
President's
visit
which
is
the
most
challenging.
Candy
of
investment
commitments
and
the
success
earlier
in
initializing
the
BRICS
Bank
cannot
simply
do
away
the
issues
related
to
the
unsettled
border
disputes,
relentless
Chinese
intrusions
as
well
as
the
prickly
issue
of
Chinese
military
assistance
to
Pakistan.
No
doubt
the
Chinese
investments
are
highly
welcome
especially
in
the
realms
of
infrastructure
development
but
this
alone
would
not
be
good
enough
to
camouflage
the
thorny
issues
which
are
contentious
but
not
unsolvable.
In other words, the Sino-Indian relationship is entering an era of cooptition, a combination of cooperation, competition and stalemates and all the three are here to stay and which are needed to be finely managed as well as balanced. And this is perhaps the norm of the day. The era of flawless friendships or complete diplomatic cut-offs are over.
The Shift in the Indian Approach
Interestingly, the marked change in approach of the Indian Government is that it is willing to play the hard ball of geopolitics even while continuing with the bonhomie of handshake diplomacy. If the warmth of a close and enduring relationship with Japan was evident during Modi's visit to Japan and his clear barb at the expansionist tendency of China, it is becoming even more evident during the visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping, wherein the visit and visible show of warmth of between the premiers did not deter India from going ahead with signing of pact with Vietnam for exploration of more oil blocks by ONGC, many of which fall in those regions of South China Sea which are claimed by China as well.
The Exceptional Midas Touch of Modi....
Many had doubted the diplomatic capability of Narendra Modi and observed that Modi as CM of Gujarat might have been successful as a capable administrator but may be a rookie when it comes to international affairs and matters of geopolitics.
Yet all the mandarins of South Block and the shenanigans of the diplomatic corridors as well as the think tanks have been humbled by the manner in which Modi has hogged the international limelight and made the Indian story come alive. The success is all his.
In many a respect his electrifying charisma and personal touch that he brings in any diplomatic rendezvous has catapulted both him and the India story to a new height from the nadir that it reached during 10 years of UPA regime.
If the investment commitments from Japan and China alone fructify, $135 billion of combined investments would be good enough to materialize some of the major proposals that his government mentioned in the maiden budget and which included 100 smart cities, bullet trains as well as major industrial clusters among others.
Already $135 billion of combined investment commitment-Is $500 billion too far?
It is for sure that the investment proposals from many of the other countries would also be coming forth in the near future and the combined foreign investment commitments for the next five years might even reach the magical $500 billion. And it is here that it would be extremely important to see if we can use the investment bait to make others appreciate the Indian perspective and take into account the Indian concerns more effectively.
Time to play the hard ball of diplomacy- Choose between India and Pakistan
The
Chinese
or
the
American
investments
in
India
are
not
any
favor
to
India.
If
India
needs
those
investments
then
those
nations
too
need
to
park
their
money
for
long
term
business
gains
in
one
of
the
most
promising
economies
of
the
world.
However
India
would
need
to
make
it
clear
now
to
both
US
and
China
and
business
cannot
go
as
usual
if
they
don't
change
their
policies
towards
Pakistan
and
cross
border
terror
that
bleeds
India.
Or
else
there
are
many
others
waiting
in
the
queue
While US continues to dilly dally on its policy on Pakistan , China's continued military assistance to Pakistan is a cause of concern. And thus India, given its massive market that few can afford to ignore, should make it clear to the world that it is time they choose between India and Pakistan.
It cannot happen that some would reap the benefits of investing in Indian market while continuing with their opaque policy and stoic silence on the nuisance that Pakistan does. It is either they choose a rogue and a failed Pakistan or they choose the $ 2 trillion Indian economy. The business as usual approach has not helped India and it is time for her to bargain hard.
Sino-Indian relationship is delicate but critical
There is no doubt that Indo-China relationship is extremely critical. Apart from being civilizational nations that both are, the countries are abode of nearly two-fifth of human population and both are supposed to be among the top two economies of the world in the next few decades.
This relationship has to go beyond just investments and have to also be in the realms of cultural exchanges, more of people to people contact and trashing the suspicions which have been allowed to thrive for long.
Modi has made a grand start and his success lies in making nations who don't see eye to eye getting eager to engage with India as a focal point. But the best thing is the fact that India has not lowered its guard or completely bowled over by Chinese commitments huge investments.
Even as Chinese President enjoy the Indian hospitality and both sides pledge to take the relationship forward, the Indian Army and US Army have started their annual joint military exercise in addition to India mulling the sale of weapon systems like Brahmos to Vietnam, proof enough that it is not willing to put all eggs in one basket anymore. Interesting times ahead for sure.