The Lalu Yadav-Nitish government is already showing cracks. The JD(U) president and the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's 'mahagathbandhan' to push back the Modi wave in Bihar is seeing rocky waves.
Barring the ego clashes, there are several contradictions in the party's functioning itself. While Nitish is running a coalition government, with the RJD and the Congress, it is exactly not clear how the two partners will function if a non-BJP government is floated in Bihar.
Tie up by force, not by choice
The shaky plinth of the coalition is likely to end up in a mess. Consider this. Lalu had to join hands with Nitish because of his background. Having been jailed for the Fodder scam, Lalu is not eligible to lead a government, forget contesting. His wife Rabri or children were a weak bait as compared to Nitish Kumar. So, in order to survive in politics for a longer period of time, Lalu ended up joining hands with Kumar.
True, he had problems considering him as the CM candidate of the Janata Dal-United and the Rashtriya Janata Dal , but he had to relent to the party pressure.
The fear of being kicked out by the BJP, if it came to power, led Lalu to crush his ego and stand beside the CM.
Lalu understood that he had a duty towards his secularist image among Bihar's Muslims. So to retain their faith and votes, Lalu understood that merely chanting rhetorics is not enough. Interestingly, he also considered Nitish's position by chanting the anti-BJP chant.
Lalu fell to his own vices
The best part about Lalu's party is that it has a fair proportion of Muslim and Yadav votes. Muslims form 16.5 per cent of Bihar's electorate while Yadavs constitute about 14 per cent. Currently, Lalu' party has 22 legislators. While the Muslims still want to see him as the CM, but for the pending case, which does not allow him to contest.
If not Lalu, then no one
The Bihari Muslims have a clear idea of what they want. If Lalu cannot be placed the CM, they will divide their votes among the Congress, JD-U and the RJD.
The RJD party workers calculated that if Lalu became a hurdle in the alliance, the Congress and the JDU would allege that Lalu relented to the demands of mining barons and the pending cases against him. Hence, it was Lalu's loss both the ways.
Although the alliance was made, Lalu's partners were not confident about him. For instance, a senior Congress leader said,"Lalu seems uncertain. He can break his commitment at the time of ticket distribution or soon after the election."
After Lalu's demands on seat sharing on the basis of 2010 assembly elections results, some Congress party members believe that there must be certain hidden considerations behind Lalu's moves as he is not someone who willingly takes a back seat.
The caste barrier
Traditionally, the Yadav leaders do not like Nith's politics as he belongs to the Kurmi caste. However, the hands had to be joined for the fear of losing Muslim votes to the stronger parties that could oust the Modi government. This is why Lalu said that he was ready to drink "poison" to crush the "cobra" of communalism.
If Lalu, at any point in time decides to leave the united front, the government will be left in shambles. And if he did not, he certainly will have dictating terms over the party's head, given the Muslim and the Yadav cards that he may flash every now and then.