Maharashtra Assembly poll: Post break ups, who will get comfort with whom?

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There are possible permutation and combination post 'Maha-break up'
First time in Maharashtra's history, the state is going to witness a quadrangular contest in the coming assembly elections. All four major parties in the state have parted ways from their allies and decided to test the waters alone. Moments after BJP put an end to its 25-year-old marriage with Shiv Sena, their rivals NCP and Congress too decided to part ways and ended their 15-year-long alliance.

This sudden turn of events has made the contest in the state very interesting as nobody is sure over what is going to happen now. It is highly unlikely now that any of the four parties that is BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP will be able to get clear majority in the assembly polls. Hence, speculations are rife that this split might pave way to new alliance.

Why the alliance ended?

BJP-Shiv Sena part ways after 25 years

Putting an end to days of suspense and uncertainties, Bhartiya Janta Party and Shiv Sena decided to quit 25-year-old alliance on Thursday. Though both the parties are are putting onus on each other and holding each other responsible for pulling the plug but none can deny is that it was their 'ego' and lust for power which is took a toll on partnership. It was the tussle over seat sharing for the assembly polls which the two parties couldn't resolve.

15-year-old NCP-Congress alliance too comes to an end

Congress and NCP alliance was one of the most successful alliance in the state as their alliance was is power in Maharashtra for the last 15 years. In this case too it was 'a decimated' Congress's hunger to get the biggest share of the pie resulted in NCP not coming to its terms.

Also, one of the reasons for NCP's decision to withdraw its support from the Congress is that both the parties are starting at their worst ever loss due to high anti-incumbency wave. Hence, NCP, hoping for better future prospects, would now be free to decide which way to go post poll.

With old friends parting ways for their own good might eventually result in arch rivals leaving bitterness aside may come together and forge a new alliance.

Then they might hope for coming into majority in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.

Now lets discuss about what are the possible permutation and combination post 'Maha-break up'.

NCP-BJP alliance:

If one possible alliance that everybody's guessing after the "Maha break up" is that NCP may join hands with the BJP and go for polls together. Once rivals BJP-NCP may form a post poll alliance after the two perform well but fail to perform a government on their own. Also, the NCP has been softening stand towards the BJP ever since the Narendra Modi-led NDA government came to power. Also, there are fair chances of BJP emerging as a largest party in the assembly polls.

BJP-Shiv Sena reunion:

There a probable chances of the two parties coming together after assembly poll results are declared. None of the two parties are not in a condition to get a clear majority alone but will certainly get more seats than rivals Congress, NCP and MNS. Hence they may be compelled to reunite and keep the NDA intact. And the decision over CM post could be taken on which ever party gets more seats.

Also, the sole Shiv Sena MP in Narendra Modi's cabinet Anant Geete has still not tendered his resignation. This hints that the BJP has not closed all doors for talks with Shiv Sena.

Congress-NCP reunion:

This could also have been a possibility after polls but it is highly unlikely because both the parties are facing anti-incumbency and hence there are no chances of their rival in the October 15 assembly polls atleast. 

Shiv Sena-MNS alliance:

If one alliance that everybody's talking about is this. Speculations are rife that former Shiv Sena leader and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray may come board with cousin Uddhav and form an alliance. Both the parties have local Marathis as their traditional vote bank and if the duo comes together then it will ensure that entire 150 crore Marathi vote falls in their side and that will automatically bring them in the drivers' seat.

Also, reports are claiming that Uddhav Thackeray reportedly called his estranged cousin and political rival, Raj Thackeray, on phone in last 24 hours.

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