Who will emerge the winner in Jharkhand? This state goes to polls along with Jammu and Kashmir and the results in Jharkhand will be eagerly awaited and watched.
In the first part of the series, Dr Sandeep Shastri, leading psephologist discussed with Oneindia the elections in Jammu and Kashmir. In part of the series we discuss with Dr Shastri, the Jharkhand elections. [BJP forces face existential dichotomy in J-K, J'khand assembly elections; Experts reveal how]
The battle for Jharkhand:
The major issue will be the bad governance by the JMM. The JMM will find the going tough and its performance will be heavily gauged during these elections.
The Congress, however, cannot stake a claim by telling the voter about the bad performance of the JMM. The people have not forgotten that the Congress was once part of this JMM government.
As I pointed out in the first part, the Congress has not yet recovered from its Lok Sabha defeat and not only it is losing power in states, but has been pushed to the third position.
The Prime Minister Narendra MOdi has staked his reputation in the campaign at Jharkhand. One gets to see a new style of campaign by the BJP. In fact it is very similar to what the Congress did and that is the leader from Delhi gets the vote in the state.
The Modi wave has helped the BJP a great deal and I feel that it will help the BJP in Jharkhand as well. I think in Jharkhand, if the BJP is able to pull it off, it asserts a new political terrain in the state assembly.
Although we see Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar coming together, many believe that it is still BJP which is on the safe side.
As I have pointed out the battle for the BJP is being fought on the leadership of the Prime Minister and how big a factor this is will be seen in the elections at Jharkhand.
A bigger test:
The Jharkhand election will be a major test of the Prime Minister's leadership. Unlike Maharashtra and Haryana, where the BJP claimed that they were not given a chance in the past, in Jharkhand they cannot take that stance.
The BJP had been given a chance and hence I stated that this will be a bigger test of the Prime Minister's leadership. However, there is a major tilt in the BJP's favour, according to me.
Another factor that everyone will be watching is the performance of the Congress. There is a good chance that the Congress will be pushed to the third position here. This will ring the alarm bells in the Congress.
(Read Tomorrow- the battle for Delhi)