Putting an end to days of speculations, results for the 87-member Jammu and Kashmir Assembly were announced on Tuesday. By getting 28 seats in its kitty, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has emerged as the single largest party in the assembly polls, while its rival BJP received historic 25 seats.
Incumbent, National Conference and its former ally Congress won on 15 and 12 seats, respectively. Others have bagged 7 seats.
What are the parties' performance:
PDP - 28
BJP - 25
NC - 15
INC - 12
PC - 02
PDF(S) - 01
Independents - 03
How many needed to form Govt?
For any party to come to power, it must get a minimum of 44 seats in the 87-member assembly.
But, this time both PDP and BJP have failed to touch the magical figure of 44 on their own, forcing the J&K into a hung assembly. Hence, both the parties have options open in front of them and decide how they are going to achieve a simple majority in the 87-seat house.
Now lets discuss about all the possible permutations and combinations that might help these parties to form a government. Having said that one must consider that neither BJP is going to ally with the Congress nor PDP is not going to form an alliance with the NC.
PDP + BJP
The first possible combination that can happen is that the two major parties come together and enter into an alliance. With 28 (PDP) and 25 (BJP) seats the tally will reach 53, one short of the magical figure (44).
PDP + BJP + PC
There could also be a situation if PDP, BJP and PC seal an alliance.
In such a condition, the new alliance can take the help of Sajjad Lone's People Conference, which has won 2 seats. This alliance will take the tally to 55.
28+25+2 = 55
PDP + BJP + Independents
Another possible combination could be that the alliance takes support of the three Independent candidates and form government.
28+25+3 = 56
PDP + Congress
Another possible combination could be that the PDP joins hands with the Congress. In such a condition the numbers could be as follows:
28+15 = 43, i.e. one short of the majority. Hence they can take the support of either Lone's PC or the help of Independents.
PDP + Congress + PC
28+15+2 = 45, simple majority.
PDP + Congress + Independents
28+15+3 = 46, simple majority.
PDP + Others
28 + (2+1+3) = 34, i.e. 10 short of majority.
Another possible combination could be if old friends NC and Congress come together they won't be able to get a simple majority on their own. Hence the two would have to take the help of others as well to get a simple majority.
What if BJP joins NC's hand?
If BJP and NC come together, the two won't be able to form a government without the support of others.
BJP + NC => 25 + 15 = 40
In such a scenario, the two would have to take the support of others to get majority.
BJP+NC+Others (PC + JDF(S) + Independents) => 25 + 15 + 6 = 46, majority.
If NC forms an alliance with Congress?
NC + Congress
15 + 12 = 27 i.e. 15 short of majority.
Thus, even if NC + Congress + PC + PDF(S) + Independents come together, they won't be able to come to power.
15 + 12 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 33, i.e. 11 short of majority.
Hence this alliance is also not feasible in the hung assembly.
Thus, it will be interesting to see who will join hands with whom and govern the state of Jammu and Kashmir.