In larger national and international interest it is very important that the BJP is in the driver's seat when it comes to the government formation in Jammu and Kashmir. Hence it would do everything to ensure that it is not part of a government where it is the minority party as it could read very badly on both the international and national front, says leading psephologist Dr Sandeep Shastri.
Dr Shastri speaks with Oneindia about the government formation in Jammu and Kashmir and also informs that the elections are a wake up call for all major players.
BJP has to be the major player in government:
The BJP cannot treat Jammu and Kashmir like anyother state. There is not just national but international attention over here. For a party which rules at the centre, it would not read too well if it plays second fiddle in the government at J&K.
Right from issues of development, security, Pakistan and militancy, the BJP would want to have a say. All these issues are directly under its control at the centre and if it plays a second fiddle it would have to listen to the terms of the majority party. It would read very badly internationally for the BJP and hence it will try and avoid playing second fiddle.
The first option for the formation of a government in Jammu and Kashmir would be a PDP-BJP tie up. Looking at the noises made by the PDP during the campaign it appears as though they would want to ally with the PDP. Moreover the trend is to ally with the party at the centre.
However if the BJP agrees to this, they would want to be in the driver's seat and ask for the post of Chief Minister. This may not be agreeable to the PDP. The other question is whether the BJP will be ready to play second fiddle in the government. That appears difficult.
The other option is that there may be a government of the PDP and the Congress with the independents. This would add up the numbers and the PDP has been in a government with the Congress in the past. If the deal does not work out with the BJP the PDP may explore this option.
However what would weigh heavily on the mind of the PDP is that the Congress does not have power at the centre and there is very little that they can get done especially when they have promised the people so much. The BJP may also be aloof to the PDP if they ally with the Congress.
This in fact would be a better option for the BJP if it wants to be in the driver's seat. It could ally with the NC and with the support of some independents form the government. Here the BJP would be the bigger player as it has better numbers than the NC.
The BJP would hold the power and also have the first say in all the decisions. This would ensure that the BJP is the bigger player. However the BJP may have to accommodate the NC in the centre which it may not mind doing if it gets the better share in Jammu and Kashmir.
Where the BJP went wrong:
The BJP may have hoped for a much better performance. The fact that they won all their seats in Jammu and did not open their account in Kashmir is quite telling. The fact that they did not win in Leh despite winning there in the Lok Sabha segment is also quite telling.
The BJP needs to do some soul searching and also ponder whether fielding Muslim candidates had a negative impact on them. Jammu and Kashmir may be one state, but when looking at it politically it is ideally three states.
If the BJP came second it is also to do with the fact that the Congress did manage to snatch away some of its seats in the Jammu region.