Is Pakistan Planning Another Kargil War or a 26/11?

Written by: Pathikrit Payne
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Is Pak planning to strike again
There is lull for the time being. For quite some time, such intermittent lull was preceded and followed by incessant firing, shelling and attempts to push in militants. Thus when it comes to Pakistan's thaw in activities, it need not mean peace. It only means Pakistan is essentially plotting something new and the challenge for India is to anticipate that and act accordingly.

The Pakistani Game Plan - First Start Fire and then Cry Foul

For almost more than a week Pakistan resorted to massive shelling and firing with heavy machine guns that resulted in the death of some Indian citizens and injuring many, thereby forcing the armed forces to move the people living in the border to safer zones. The deliberate attempt of Pakistan to target civilian areas was surprising but not unexpected.

In reciprocation, the Indian Government gave a free hand to the Indian Army and BSF to retaliate with full force. It is said that Pakistan was stunned by the enormity of the response and did not expect to come so promptly.

In fact such has been the devastation on the Pakistani side that they were soon seeing knocking the door of the United Nations for intermediation. The objective was simple. Internationalise the Kashmir issue again. But sadly for Pakistan, all it got was a royal snub from UN once again.

In between Pakistan has already raised even the nuclear bogey and warned of war and the Pakistan Prime Minister went to the United Nations General Assembly and tried to raise the Kashmir issue once more but did not even get an iota of the support from the global community. The second wave of shelling followed soon after.

The Pakistani Game Plan- When Shelling Fails to Rattle , use the Terror Route

Meanwhile the Al Qaida chief also declared Jihad on India and it is a known fact that it is well nigh impossible for Al Qaeda to even attempt something in India without the help of the Pakistani ISI and Pakistan based terror groups likes LeT or Jaish-e-Mohammad. And now the former Army Chief and ex- president of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf, has stated in an interview to a Pakistani news channel that Pakistan needs to incite those fighting in Kashmir.

What Makes Pakistan So Desperate Now?

In all respect, the rising optimism and the increasing acceptance of Modi as India's Prime Minister, the positive sentiments that he has been able to create as well as the tough stands he has been taking, including his calling off of Secretary level talks after the Pakistani High Commissioner in India, met Kashmiri Separatists, have made the Pakistani establishment, especially the Pakistan Army jittery. The internal incoherence of Pakistan, its continuous face-off with radical Islamic extremist groups which it has groomed in the past as well as its own faltering economy is gradually making Pakistan a desperate nation.

The Terror Threat Along with the Threat of War

It was only yesterday that the head of National Security Guard, India's elite counter terror force, stated in no uncertain terms the possibility of multiple terror attacks in India highlighting the enormity of threat that India faces. The explosive revelations of terror factories in certain madrassas in the Burdwan district in Bengal and their links to Jamaat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JUMB) should not be looked in isolation but as part of the larger conspiracy of orchestrating terror attack in India, the tentacles of which are spread far and wide.

Is Another Kargil War or 26/11 Round the Corner?

Therefore it would not be surprising if Pakistan attempts another Kargil or use its state sponsored non-state actors to orchestrate another 26/11. For Pakistan there is not much at stake and going for a conflict with India would only increase the relevance of the Pakistani Armed Forces who have always felt uneasy at the possibility of any peace between India and Pakistan and have also very recently cut Nawaz Sharif Government to size after he accepted Modi's invitation to participate in the swearing in ceremony of the Modi Government in May this year. There is no doubt that it is the Pakistan Army which is calling the shots and would continue to do so .

In all probability, even as the Modi Government has been putting massive efforts to improve the economy and bring in more foreign investments, it is for sure that Pakistan would try to foment trouble and thus it would be prudent to shore up India's defence capabilities on equal war footing and with the same vigor with which efforts are being put to revive the economy. With neighbors like Pakistan, being prepared for war is the only way of maintaining perpetual peace.

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