How Shiv Sena quitting NDA will hurt Modi Govt's big bang reforms agenda

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Narendra Modi
Devendra Fadnavis-led minority government sailed through its first test by winning the trust vote motion. The first ever BJP led minority government won the trust vote motion on the floor of the Maharashtra Assembly which was carried by a voice vote.

So, from now on get ready to witness rivalry between Shiv Sena and BJP. Also, the Narendra Modi-led NDA will have to face a crisis in the Parliament if Sena withdraws support of its MPs from the Centre.

What happened in Maharashtra Assembly

Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde is Maharashtra's new Opposition leader. So its official now, Shiv Sena will be the principal Opposition party in the Maharashtra Assembly.

And immediately after the BJP government won the trust vote opposition, including Shiv Sena and Congress, upped the ante against the new BJP government. The Shiv Sena went on to attack the BJP and claimed that the latter betrayed the people's mandate. The BJP however has distanced itself from making any comments in this regard.

Beginning of a new era in Maharashtra politics

This day will mark the beginning of a new era in Maharashtra politics as now friends-turned-foes Shiv Sena and BJP will now attack each other. Arguments between the ruling and principal opposition parities will now get more scathing.

Shiv Sena leaders' attack over BJP government was just a trailer as it will be a common sight as both the parties will leave no stones unturned to oppose and defend each other.

The Shiv Sena will be standing along side Congress to attack Devendra Fadnavis and his party in the coming days and months to come.

Will Sena end alliance at Centre?

But a pertinent question arises whether Shiv Sena will end snap its ties with the NDA or not. The party had given enough signals on the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi expanded his first cabinet and Shiv Sena boycotted it. The party even refused the BJP's offer of giving cabinet berths to two of its Parliamentarians.

Things went to worse from bad when, to everyone's surprise, Shiv Sena's MP from Rajapur, Suresh Prabhu, joined the BJP, just hours before taking oath as a Cabinet Minister in the Narendra Modi cabinet. This further confirmed that the things were still not sorted out and that the BJP is in no mood to bow to Sena's pressure.

But, what's even more shocking that the Shiv Sena has not yet snapped ties with the BJP at Centre as its MP Anant Geete is still a cabinet minister. But, after today's development one feels that breaking of alliance at Centre is imminent. However, one still has to wait for an official confirmation.

Sena's exit will be a trouble for the NDA

If Shiv Sena walks out of the coalition it will be a trouble for the NDA, though it won't be a threat over government's stability. But Shiv Sena's exit from the alliance will significantly affect the crucial economic reforms planned by Narendra Modi government.

That's because the NDA will lose its majority in the joint session of the Parliament as it still lacks a majority in the Rajya Sabha. The government would try to use joint session of the Parliament to pass key legislation like insurance amendment bill, changes in land acquisition act and constitutional amendment that will be needed for the goods and services tax (GST) bill.

In the present situation, there are total 541 members of Lok Sabha while 241 members in the Rajya Sabha. Thus, a joint session would take the total strength of the (541+241 = 782). And 392 seats are needed for a simple majority, in case all members of the both the Houses attend the joint session and vote.

At present the NDA government's collective strength is 396 seats (335 from Lok Sabha while 61 seats from RS). If Sena's share of seats (21 seats i.e. 18 from LS and 3 from RS) is subtracted, then the NDA's strength would be reduced to 375. Hence, the government will fall 17 seats short of the half-way mark.

Post-Sena's exit, NDA will have to depend on "opportunist" NCP, AIADMK

After Shiv Sena's departure from the scene, the government will have to depend on Independents, and or Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Jayalalithaa's AIADMK to get key bills passed from the floor of the joint session of both the Houses. It is thought that both these parties, which are going through crisis will support the government in times of need, but not without riders and conditions.

Since, it is a common practice that the ruling parties always manage to get more than the required support but such parties later demand for favours from the government for saving it on the floor of the Parliament.

Hence, the NDA too will have to face such troubles if it falls short of the simple majority.

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