A latest poll survey conducted by India TV-C-Voter suggests that the ruling party at the Centre will fall short of 9 seats if the election for 90-member State Assembly are conducted today.
Voting for Haryana Assembly will take place on 15th of October, 2014.
BJP's Mission 60 in Haryana looks grim
The poll tracker projected the BJP to winning 37 out of 90 assembly seats, which is nine short of the magical figure of 46. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) may win 22 seats while the ruling Congress could win just 19 seats. The HJC and others may win six seats.
Nearly a month ago, another survey had predicted nearly 46 seats to the BJP, if the party contested alone in the Jat land. The same pre-poll survey had given 50-plus seats to the BJP-HJC alliance that until recently had electoral ties with Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress. HJC had snapped ties with the BJP accusing the party of betraying its trust.
Looks like the BJP has already started facing the heat after Haryana Janhit Congress parted ways with the party. The HJC was then predicted to get no more than three seats that now seems to be getting six or more seats after splitting alliance.
Drop in BJP's voter share
If one talks about vote share, the BJP has also registered a dip. In the survey, BJP received 33 per cent of the votes while its rivals, Congress, INLD and HJC are receiving 28, 26 and 6 per cent of votes, respectively. Others will also get 7 per cent of the votes.
This is in stark contrast of party's the Lok Sabha poll performance when Narendra Modi-wave decimated everyone else and received about 35% of the votes. Not to forget, the BJP was in alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi's HJC then.
If we talk of others' vote share in general election, INLD, Congress, HJC got 24.4 per cent, 23 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 11.7 per cent respectively.
Split with HJC has hurt BJP?
HJC in association with Vinod Sharma's (another major regional player in Haryana) Jan Chetna Party may not be able to come to power in Haryana. Experts however are feeling that the HJC's breakup is not into BJP's interest and it will mar the latter's chances of coming to power for the first time in Haryana. By parting ways with HJC the BJP has done a huge loss to its prospects in Haryana, experts feel.
Since the BJP and HJC both share the same vote bank in the state a split would also result in division of voters. In such a contest, it will benefit BJP's rivals, Congress and INLD.
Bishnoi might have lost his traditional seat in the LS poll but assembly polls are a different ball game altogether. HJC still enjoys immense popularity among non-Jat voters and that will definitely come handy to his party and would translate into votes in the assembly polls.
The HJC has its stronghold in Hissar, Sirsa and Karnal region hence, it still has optimum chances of winning from these districts.
Also, Bishnoi's accusation that the saffron party had betrayed his trust, barely days ahead of declaration of model code of conduct, seems to have worked for his party. Hence, playing a victim card seems to have helped Bishnoi and a loss for the saffron party.
Another dampener for the BJP is its failure to maintain its grip over non-Congress votes in Haryana. Experts feel that by inducting several Congress leaders in its fold the party has confused the common man in Haryana as they voted for the BJP due to their displeasure with the incumbent Bhupinder Singh Hooda government in the state. And when same corrupt and non-performing Congress leaders are standing at BJP's side how will they vote for them?
Hence, BJP's chances of winning October 15 Haryana assembly polls on its own look grim. It is likely to emerge as the biggest political party in the assembly polls but BJP nowhere seems to be getting a clear majority. It will either have to bank upon regional players or sit in opposition.