It's been 48 hours since Greece's historic referendum by the people, turning down the bail out offered by the Eurozone. At one glance, it seems to be a disaster for the country's economy and even more horrible for the people here, but a second glance gives a more appropriate picture-Greece going down, indeed, but taking down all the Eurozone members with it (if they deed not concede to a more complaisant bail-out policy).
Whatever, the case be, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's tried and tested move to get his way is working here too. Either ways, Greece will have the upper hand.
Scenario 1: Eurozone does not relax policies
If the Eurozone members refuse to budge from their policies, there will be a phenomenal change in the global economy with the 'Grexit' or Greece's exit from the Eurozone. True that the country will have to mint its own Drachma, but the Euro members may also be found struggling with the Euro devaluation.
Investors in Euro will back off with the Grexit, in forbearance of the unstable value of the currency. Instead, they will choose to invest in Dollars, which will soar high.
Secondly, Greece's exit will also threaten the integrity of the Eurozone as weaker countries in the group will live in constant fear and pressure of facing a similar fate like that of Greece.
As eminent economist Nitin Desai puts it, the 'No' vote is an indirect way to bail Greece out. The government can now put pressure on the European Union to offer better terms if it wants the Euro to survive.
And it has worked wonders!France, Italy and Germany already seem to have agreed. The fact that Greece does not want to exit the Eurozone is clear, but it still has to manage a better deal. The troika-European Central Bank, European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)- will have no other choice but to allow that, otherwise countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy and possibly Ireland will be stressed by outstanding Euro debt.
At this point, the European Union may have no other option but to write-off debts and providing heavy protection to the vulnerable southern states of Europe.
The exit would have geo-political repurcussions too. With rumors that Greece may allow Russia to use their military bases to exercise power over the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, along with the Balkans. If Greece withdrew from NATO, it will fill the third angle of the religious triangle of Russia and Serbia.
Scenario 2: Eurozone relaxes policies
Greece is willing to pay the debt, but needs some time to repay the troika. The next deadline, however is on July 20 when Greece has to repay 3.5 billion euro bond to ECB.
Relaxing the repayment conditions would keep Greece inside the zone, thus negating rumors that it may join Russia. Greece has been a NATO member since 1952 and has commercial, cultural and religious ties with Russia.
And that has been inked by the Greek PM Alexis Tsipras when he signed a deal with Russia to open a Russian gas pipeline across Greece next year.
This, in turn, would also avoid the threat of Greece's interference in NATO countries responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Consider this: If the EU did not bail out Greece, the latter will not prevent illegal immigration to the rest of Europe. Not to forget the vow of the Greek defense minister Panos Kammenos who said that he would flood the rest of Europe with immigrants if the union allowed Greece to go bankrupt.
To be precise, he said,"If Europe leaves us in the crisis, we will flood it with immigrants, and it will be even worse for Berlin if in that wave of millions of economic immigrants there will be some jihadists of the Islamic State, too."
He also added,"all the newcomers to Greece, Kammenos said, would be given papers, so they could go straight to Berlin."
Certainly, Eurozone is cornered and should now aim for a more amicable solution that will retain the identity and the valuation of the currency.