Despite the Nielsen survey, Trinamool still has reasons to worry

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The ABP Ananda and AC Nielsen survey has given a clear picture of the West Bengal Assembly elections 2016. Indeed, the wider roads and landscaping in the city will act in Didi's favour, however she has more to worry about.

Forget the Narada sting operation that has cropped up recently because that is just the icing on the cake. A few factions in the state believe that Mamata has called for her fallout herself and that has been done over the years.

Mamata Banerjee

Reasons to worry

Consider this, TMC has won 34 out of 42 Lok Sabha Seats in the 2014 General elections, 63% of the seats in the state Assembly and a whopping 81% of West Bengal's Lok Sabha seats. However, what led to this whopping victory is also a matter of amusement and a major reason to worry.

Trinamool's opposition were divided and so were the votes that went against the party, which led a very low vote sharing accounting for just 39%. In the contrast, the CPI(M) and the Congress together polled in 32.3% of votes.

[Read: AC Nielsen second Bengal opinion poll: TMC may get 178 seats, Left-Cong alliance 110, BJP 1]

The picture become grimmer if we consider the fact that BJP too was a stake-holder, earning the votes of former CP(I)M followers. Now that they are yet to establish a position for themselves in the state, these very votes may go back to the party, leading to a very thin margin between the coalition and the TMC.

CP(I)M-Congress coalition

Pledging to oust the undemocratic TMC regime, the opposition forces have taken a step ahead in creating a coalition. Although the state party workers of the Congress and the CP(I)M are ready, the only hindrance is the silence of the Congress headquarters.

And if the coalition happens, the new party is likely to frisk away the Muslim votes that Mamata had garnered in the 2011 and 2014 elections, given the fact that both the Congress and the CPM have the potential of doing that.

[Read: West Bengal opinion poll: Random seat-wise predictions]

The geological presence of Trinamool Congress is also on shaky grounds. Mamata's presence is very weak in Central and Northern Bengal, visa vie the Southern part. Incidentally, the recent violence in Kaliachak, Malda and its fallout will affect her grounds even more as the district is a part of Central Bengal.

The polarization here would gain both the BJP and the TMC, the former garnering the Hindu votes and the latter attrcating the Muslim votes. This is likely to land the Congress in an uncertain position even though they have been dominating central Bengal since 1947; reason enough for an urgency in coalition with the CP(I)M.

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