Turbulent air travel over Atlantic due to climate change
One of the world's busiest flight corridors is also going to be one of the bumpiest in the years to come due to shifts in the jet stream as a result of global warming. Commercial jets pump out some 700 million tons of CO2 a year-about two percent of global emissions.
A new study says that flights on transatlantic routes will start to shake apart by mid-century. The bumps could become stronger due to the intensification of conditions that lead to a type of turbulence called clear-air turbulence (to increase by between 40 per cent and 170 per cent), according to the study published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The
clear-air
turbulence
is
mainly
associated
with
jet
streams
and
can
occur
in
clear
blue
skies.
"The
pilot
can't
see
it
and
the
sensors
onboard
can't
see
it-that's
why
it's
a
particularly
dangerous
form
of
turbulence," said
Paul
Williams,
an
atmospheric
scientist
at
the
University
of
Reading
in
the
United
Kingdom
and
lead
author
of
the
new
paper.
The
jet
stream
is
a
gigantic
fast-moving
body
of
air
that
circulates
several
kilometres
high.
This
acceleration
makes
the
atmosphere
more
susceptible
to
the
instability
that
creates
turbulence.
C
limate
models
have
shown
that
climate
change
will
draw
the
jet
stream
over
the
North
Atlantic
even
farther
north,
said
Williams.
He
and
his
colleague,
Manoj
Joshi
of
the
University
of
East
Anglia
in
the
United
Kingdom,
wanted
to
know
what
that
would
mean
for
clear-air
turbulence.
"Our research suggests that we'll be seeing the ‘fasten seat belts' sign turned on more often in the decades ahead," said Williams.
A passenger can handle spilling of drinks but severe clear-air turbulence can injure or kill passengers, and damage planes. The flight crew are risk, more than passengers. The flight attendants aren't usually buckled in, they can get thrown around the cabin.
The air turbulence means the airlines may have to fly more detours in the future to avoid it, a waste of time and fuel that ups emissions. This could also mean higher ticket prices.
The authors estimate turbulence costs society about $150m each year. "The only ray of hope is if atmospheric scientists get better at predicting turbulence in advance, so that flights can be routed around it. Whether this is possible remains to be seen," Williams said.
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