Assembly elections: Pre-poll surveys predictions came close to results

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Were the pre-poll surveys accurate?
Bangalore, Dec 16: In the run up to the Assembly elections in the five states- Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Chhattisgarh, voters had a huge help from opinion polls conducted by the news channels.

With a wide range of opinion polls predicting winners in each state, each poll helped the voters to make a decision of their own. While most of the predictions for each state were almost accurate, Delhi proved to be the most unpredictable.

The ABP- Nielsen pre-poll survey predicted that BJP would get 28 seats, Congress would get 22 seats and the AAP would get 18 seats in Delhi. According to the survey, Congress had lost its loyalty base, which was gained by the AAP.

According to the India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey, there would be a strong fight between Congress and the BJP. The survey had predicted that BJP would get 29 seats while Congress would get 27 seats, whereas the AAP would get only 10 seats.

Most pre-poll surveys had predicted a hung assembly in Delhi

The ORG survey, conducted by the India Today group, predicted that in Madhya Pradesh the BJP would continue to run the government. The survey had predicted 143 seats for the BJP, 71- 78 seats for the Congress and 9 to 16 seats for others.

Times Now, in its C-Voter opinion polls had predicted the AAP to be a game-changer. According to its survey, BJP would be the largest party followed by the AAP and Congress. In Rajasthan, it predicted that the BJP would win with a big majority bring Vasundhara Raje to power. It also predicted a tough fight between Congress and BJP in Chhattisgrah and a smooth victory for BJP in Madhya Pradesh.

While most opinion polls had predicted a clear victory for the BJP in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, Delhi had a mixed response, with the pre-poll surveys hinting at a Hung assembly.

According to the above mentioned surveys, Times Now came closest to the results of the assembly elections.

In Delhi BJP won 32 seats, AAP won 28 seats and Congress won 8 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won 165 seats, Congress won 58 seats where as others won 7 seats. In Rajasthan, BJP won 162 seats, Congress won 21 seats. In chhattisgarh, BJP won 49 seats, Congress won 39 seats and in Mizoram, Congress won 33 seats, whereas Mizo National Front won 4 seats.

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