2014 polls surveys: Regional parties will have an impact

We take a look at the pre-poll surveys for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Most surveys have indicated at a loss of the UPA and the emergence of the BJP as the single-largest party. Although, in terms of government formation, it will ultimately depend on the regional leaders to decide who leads the next government at the Centre.

Times Now-CVoter Survey

[2014 polls survey: Govt formation will be a big challenge]

CNN-IBN, The Hindu poll survey

The BJP is likley to emerge as the single largest party if national elections are held now, a joint poll survey of CNN-IBN and The Hindu conducted by the CSDS, New Delhi, has said. The saffron party is expected to bag between 156-164 seats, which is 40 more than what it had got in 2009, compared to the Congress's tally of 131-139. The Congress's seats indicate at a massive loss of 70 seats, compared to its results five years earlier.

2014 poll surveys: Regional parties key

The NDA is likely to get 172-180 seats if the polls are held now, as against the UPA's 149-157. The BJP's allies are expected to get 13-19 seats while those of the Congress around 15-21 seats.

Vote share percentage
Party/alliance 2009 2013
UPA 29 31.5
NDA 29 21.5
Left 7.6 8
BSP 6.2 6
SP 3.4 4
Others 29 26

However, more than the Congress or the BJP, it is the regional parties who are set to play the decisive role in the formation of the next government at the Centre. In terms of seats, this is the likely result of the regional parties:

Party(seats) 2013
Trinamool Congress 23-37 19
Left 22-28 24
SP 17-21 23
BSP 15-19 21
AIADMK 16-20 9
DMK 8-12 18
JDU 15-19 20
RJD 8-12 4
BJD 12-16 14
YSRC 11-15 0
TDP 6-10 6
TRS 5-9 2

In the final analysis, it is the Mamatas, Nitish Kumars, Jayalalithaas and Navin Patnaiks who will ultimately decide who rules from Delhi for the next five years.

[Read: Regional parties hold sway: Why not follow PM-by-turn model]

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[Bengal: Mamata likely to emerge more powerful]

[Gujarat:'PR con job icon' or not, it's only Modi]

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The Week-Hansa Research Survey

The next Lok Sabha elections can at best be compared to the 1996 polls. That year, the Congress government led by a non-Gandhi and not-so-charismatic leader called PV Narasimha Rao was up against an opposition which was led by a vote-catching figure called Atal Bihari Vajpayee. This time, the two have been replaced by Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, respectively, and while Singh is a non-Gandhi and not among the best of India's charismatic politicians, Modi fits the bill as a vote-catcher.

Projected seats
Alliance 2009 2013
UPA 262 184
NDA 159 197
Others 122 162

Vote share percentage
Alliance 2009 2013
UPA 37.2 31.7
NDA 23.3 26.7
Others 39.5 41.6

Favourite as prime minister
Leader Percentage
Narendra Modi 32
Manmohan Singh 15
Rahul Gandhi 13
Sonia Gandhi 8
Mayawati 5
L K Advani 5
Mulayama Singh Yadav 4
Nitish Kumar 3
Mamata Banerjee 3

ABP News & AC Nielsen Survey

'Fractured mandate if polls are held today'

NRI Survey

'Jayalalithaa, Narendra Modi both capable of becoming PM'

OneIndia News

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