2014 polls surveys: Rattled Nitish still leads, Lalu to gain

New Delhi, July 23: The CNN-IBN along with The Hindu have carried out a comprehensive nationwide opinion poll survey across the country to get an idea on how things are going to take shape in various states. The findings are based on the survey conducted by the Centre for the Society of Developing Societies in the last week of June and first week of July. Ten 'battleground' states have been selected.

BIHAR (Total 40 seats )

Test for both Nitish Kumar and BJP. Battle of survival for the RJD.

[See: Mamata likely to emerge more powerful]

Survey shows: Thirty-eight per cent of people think that Nitish Kumar should have accepted Narendra Modi and not terminate the alliance with the BJP. Twenty per cent believes the BJP should not have promoted Modi while 42% said they had no opinion.


Thirty-three per cent held the JD(U) responsible for the break-up in the alliance while only 19% believed the BJP was responsible. Twenty-six per cent did not have any opinion.

Twenty-five per cent believed the JD(U) should partner with the Congress while 12% believed that it should ally with the BJP. Eight per cent thought the party should ally with the RJD while 50% had no opinion.

Percentage of people who were satisfied with Nitish Kumar government's performance came down from 90% to 69% while the percentage of dissatisfaction rose from 9% to 25%.

Nitish should have accepted Modi as an ally 38%. BJP should not have promoted 20% Modi No opinion 42%. JDU more responsible for break-up 33% 19% feels BJP 4% neither have 26% no opinion The JD(U) should partner the Congress 25% BJP 12% RJD 8% others 5% no opinion 50% Satisfied with Nitish 90% in 2011 69% in 2013 dissatisfaction level 9% to 25%

2009 Lok Sabha elections

Vote share

JD(U) 24%

RJD 19%

BJP 14%

Cong 10%

Seat tally

JD(U) 20


BJP 12

Cong 2

2013 projections

Vote share

JD(U) 25%

RJD 24%

BJP 22%

Congress 10%

others 19%

Seat tally

JD(U) 15-19

RJD 8-12

BJP 8-12

Congress 0-4

Experts view:

Political analyst and Aam Aadmi Party member Yogendra Yadav said Nitish Kumar's high rankings in the 207-11 period were mainly because of the memory of Lalu Prasad's misrule while he had also the advantages of siding with the BJP. Now, with the alliance coming to an end, the JD(U) leader would have to depend on lower OBCs and Muslims to make up for the upper-caste votes which would go away with the BJP.

Senior journalist Sankarshan Thakur said there was no need to ruin the alliance at the local level and that it would take a herculean effort for the Nitish government to overcome the challenges before the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 assembly elections.

Another senior journalist and right-wing righter Swapan Dasgupta said Nitish wanted to break the alliance for he thought it would bring the Muslim votes in favour of his party just like they had gone towards Lalu Prasad after he had arrested Lal Krishna Advani in 1990. But, Dasgupta, said Nitish took a massive gamble and the BJP's level of support was not as low as he had presumed. Besides, a large section of OBCs also felt frustrated with the Kurmi leader's decision.

Historian Ramchandra Guha, however, said it was inevitable for Nitish Kumar to end the alliance for sharing the stage with Modi would have benefitted Lalu Prasad.

Likely result: Nitish Kumar, although rattled, will emerge victorious while the RJD and BJP will have a close fight for the second position.

OneIndia News

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