2014 polls survey: Mamata likely to emerge more powerful

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New Delhi, July 23: The CNN-IBN along with The Hindu have done a comprehensive nationwide opinion poll survey across the country to get an idea on how things are going to take shape in various states. The findings are based on the survey conducted by the Centre for the Society of Developing Societies in June and July. Ten 'battleground' states have been selected.

The analysis started with West Bengal and Bihar. Both have large number of seats and are front-runners in forming a federal front. Mamata Banerjee is still a force in West Bengal while Nitish Kumar is a decisive force, yet after his parting ways with the BJP. The BJP's vote share has increased in both states but it is unlikely to increase its seats in Bengal. Its condition is better in Bihar. The Congress is in a bad shape in both the eastern states.


WEST BENGAL (Total seats 42)

Survey shows: The dissatisfaction level with Mamata Banerjee has increased from 9% in 2011 to 42% in 2013. The satisfaction with the performance of Banerjee's government has come down to 50% from 79% between 2011 and 2013. Forty-three per cent of people believe that Banerjee has been intolerant towards criticism.

[Read: 'Rattled' Nitish still leads in Bihar, Lalu to gain]

Twenty-six per cent people believe Mamata had done the right thing in leaving the UPA while 23% feels otherwise. Fifty-one per cent did not have a say. Thirty-eight per cent believes the TMC government is still better than the Left (32%).

Thirteen per cent feels both are bad while only five per cent feels both are good. In the rural areas of the state, 39% people prefer the Mamata government while 29% is in favour of the Left. In the urban areas, it is 39% to 37% in favour of the Left.

2009 LS polls

Vote share

Left Front 43%

TMC 31%

Cong 14%

BJP 6%

Seat tally

LF 15

TMC 19

Cong 6


2013 projection

Vote share

Left Front 28%

TMC 32%

Congress 22%

BJP 12%

Seat tally

LF 7-11

TMC 23-27

Cong 5-9

BJP 0-2

Experts' analysis:

Experts feel irrespective of the growing dissatisfaction with the Mamata regime, the Left is yet not in a position to take advantage from it. Many of the Left hitmen have joined the Mamata camp and even though there is a dissatisfaction with Mamata, the people of West Bengal don't want to go back to the Left who had stifled the state and is yet to offer a fresh model before the people of the state.

The Left has failed to capitalise on the failure of the TMC government.

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According to one expert, the only thing that is working in favour of Mamata Banerjee is that the horrible memory that the people carry about the previous Left Front days.

Another observer said there is a possibility of Bengal not remaining a bipolar system any more in the future.

Result: Mamata Banerjee is likely to emerge a more powerful player on the national stage post 2014.

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