An opinion poll has revealed strong public sentiments when it said that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will not be able to come back to power next year. The survey also stated that the Samajwadi Party (SP) will lead a hung assembly. With all eyes on the UP elections next year, this pre-poll survey is sure to act as a dampener for Mayawati.
The poll predicted that the BSP will win just 112 seats while the SP is touted to win 168 seats falling short of a majority in the 403-seat assembly. Mayawati's is “certain to lose power", the survey said.
The other contenders in the race, the BJP and Congress are expected to get 53 and 45 seats respectively. With the SP expected to grab a major chunk of the votes, it will only be able to maintain a marginal lead. The SP is expected to get 26.9 percent vote share as against 26.1 percent for BSP. The SP's stronghold is the favourable distribution of its support base consisting of Yadav's and Muslims.
The BSP whose focus group, the Dalits are spread evenly across the state. But what has emerged as the most fatal, is the governance failure during Mayawati's tenure that has irked the common man more. As many as sixty-one percent of respondents stated that the government's tackling of crime was pathetic and 55 percent people saying that civic infrastructure like electricity, roads and water services were not satisfactory.
The poll also revealed the people's choice of Chief Minister with 33 per cent favoring Mulayam Singh Yadav for the CM's job, 29 per cent for Mayawati and 18 per cent for BJP's Rajnath Singh. There was single popular name from the Congress that the people thought was capable of handling the job.
The survey was carried out among 2,822 voters from 12 assembly constituencies in UP and was conducted between May 26 and Jun 4.