Authored by Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, the report "Assessing the Terrorist Threat" appreciated the considerable restraint shown by India in its reaction to the provocation of the Mumbai attacks in 2008.
"Another such attack, however, would likely produce considerable political pressure on the Indian government to 'do something'. That something would likely involve incursions over the border to eliminate the training camps of Pakistani militant groups with histories of attacking India," the report said.
"That could lead in turn to a full-blown war for the fourth time since 1947 between India and Pakistan," it said.
"Such a war involves the possibility of a nuclear exchange and the certainty that Pakistan would move substantial resources to its eastern border and away from fighting the Taliban on its western border, so relieving pressure on all the militant groups based there, including al-Qaeda," said the report.